IEA says electrification drive reshapes global energy markets at Cop31

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IEA: Electrification at Cop31

Highlights

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol states the global economy will add about 12,000 gigawatts of new electricity generation in the next decade versus 5,000 gigawatts in the last ten years.
185 countries are meeting in Antalya to consider a proposal aiming for 35% of global final energy to come from electricity by 2035, with broad support despite opposition from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
IEA data shows EVs are set to reach about one-third of global car sales this year, up from 5% five years ago, with electric car sales outside China rising 60% in the last nine months.

Cop31 electrification push gains momentum

As first reported by The Guardian, International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol says the world is moving into an age in which electricity becomes the dominant energy source, even as oil and gas remain in use. He says the global economy is set to add about 12,000 gigawatts of electricity generation in the next decade, compared with about 5,000 gigawatts added over the last 10 years.

Birol says 185 countries are meeting in Antalya this week and next, with a proposal on the table to derive 35% of final energy worldwide from electricity by 2035. He says most countries support the goal, which he argues would send a clear signal to markets and investors that the future of energy lies in electricity.

He also says the shift continues even if the resolution is not adopted by consensus, despite reported opposition from countries including Saudi Arabia and Russia. In his view, electrification is being driven by structural demand from AI datacentres, transport and fast-growing air conditioning use rather than by summit diplomacy alone.

Power demand growth raises pressure on fuels and grids

Electricity currently meets about a quarter of global final energy demand, while fossil fuels still supply roughly three-quarters, mainly in transport, heating and industry. Birol says that balance is changing as more power generation comes from renewable sources and electrified systems use energy more efficiently than fossil fuel-based alternatives.

He points to a sharp rise in electric vehicle adoption, saying EVs accounted for only 5% of global car sales five years ago and are expected to reach about one-third this year, with electric trucks also expanding. Outside China, IEA data show electric car sales have risen 60% in the last nine months, adding to pressure on oil demand over time.

Birol also links higher electricity demand to climate-driven cooling needs, noting air conditioner ownership remains far lower in India and Nigeria than in the U.S. He says the UK's high electricity prices reflect reliance on imported gas, arguing that more domestic renewable power, rather than more gas imports, is the route to lower costs, stronger energy security and better competitiveness.

We have also discussed the broader context around AI datacenter financing risks as builders face higher costs, delays, and power constraints.

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