OECD migration inflows fall for second year as visa curbs tighten across rich countries

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OECD migration inflows fall

Highlights

OECD reports permanent migration to its 37 member countries drops 1.6 per cent to 6.1mn in 2025 after a 4 per cent decline in 2024.
Inflows fall 32 per cent in the UK, 14 per cent in the U.S., and 19 per cent in Canada as visa restrictions tighten across major economies.
International student enrolments in OECD countries fall from a peak of 2.1mn in 2023 to 1.6mn in 2025 amid stricter rules in the U.S., UK, Australia, and Canada.

OECD data shows broad-based slowdown

As reported by Financial Times, citing the OECD, permanent migration to its 37 member countries falls 1.6 per cent to 6.1mn in 2025, after a 4 per cent decline in 2024. The Paris-based organisation says the drop reflects both weaker economic conditions and stricter visa policies across many advanced economies.

Inflows decline in most member states, although Spain, Portugal and Italy record rapid growth as they use labour migration to help offset population decline. Excluding those southern European countries, permanent migration to the OECD is about 8 per cent lower than in 2024.

Some of the sharpest falls are in countries long seen as among the most open to migrants. Inflows drop 32 per cent in the UK, 14 per cent in the U.S. and 19 per cent in Canada.

Jean-Christophe Dumont, head of the OECD's international migration division, says the slowdown marks an adjustment from the unusually high migration levels seen just after the pandemic. He adds that greater stability in Syria also helps reduce asylum applications in the EU, while a shift in political discourse pushes governments to widen selective routes for skilled workers but tighten settlement rules and increase returns of people arriving through irregular routes.

Student, asylum and border trends shift

Temporary work migration also declines overall in 2025, with Canada seeing an especially steep fall as policy restrictions intensify. The OECD says international student enrolments, which peak at 2.1mn in 2023, drop to 1.6mn after the U.S., UK, Australia and Canada all tighten visa rules.

Excluding the U.S., where the OECD says data are complicated, the number of asylum seekers falls by more than a fifth to 1.1mn in 2025, though it remains above 2019 levels. Irregular border crossings also drop sharply after 2023, with official EU data showing declines of 37 per cent in 2024 and 32 per cent in 2025.

In the UK, small boat crossings remain high in 2025, but the OECD notes that arrivals through illegal routes in the first quarter of 2026 are at their lowest since early 2021. In the U.S., encounters recorded by the Border Patrol fall to 128,000 in 2025 from more than 1mn in 2024.

Madeleine Sumption, director of Oxford University's Migration Observatory, says it is striking how many countries are testing restrictive approaches similar to those introduced in the UK, including more temporary and conditional legal status for refugees. Even so, she says the fall in overall numbers looks more like the end of an unusual period than a decisive turn towards lower long-term cross-border mobility.

Previously, we outlined the main factors behind sovereign rating pressures as geopolitical shocks and heavy fiscal spending raise funding risks.

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