Stress test: S&P 500, gold, and Bitcoin during periods of crisis

​When the world is shaken by yet another geopolitical shock, investors instinctively flee to “safe havens” like gold. But the old rules do not always hold. We analyzed seven recent crises — from the pandemic to the military conflicts of 2026 — to find out which asset proves the most resilient.

The first shock of the new decade

But the real test for the whole world began in the spring, when on March 11 the WHO officially declared the COVID-19 pandemic. This shock proved far deeper than the previous one: the S&P 500 plunged into bear-market territory, while Bitcoin collapsed 25% in a single day. At the peak of the initial panic, the cryptocurrency behaved like a classic high-risk asset that investors dump first in exchange for cash, showing less resilience than even oil and stocks.

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The situation changed dramatically because of central bank intervention. Massive liquidity injections and interest-rate cuts effectively “put out the fire” with cheaper money, triggering a rapid recovery in asset prices. Just two months after the pandemic was declared, Bitcoin had not only fully recovered its losses but had also posted a 21% gain, substantially outperforming gold (+3%) and the S&P 500 (+2%). This episode highlighted an important pattern: in the middle of a crash, cryptocurrency falls harder, but thanks to stimulus, it tends to recover far more aggressively than traditional instruments.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022

The US stock market proved relatively resilient during this period. Yes, the S&P 500 fell sharply on the eve of the war and in its first days, but investors rather quickly concluded that while the conflict was horrific on a humanitarian level, it was not directly destroying the US economy. Two months after the war began, the index was even slightly above its late-February level, by around 3%. A much bigger challenge for equities was not the war itself but its side effect — surging energy prices and intensifying inflationary pressure. It was the fear of an aggressive Fed that eventually pushed the S&P 500 down by about 20% by the end of 2022. Put simply, markets shifted from fearing war to fearing recession caused by expensive oil and gas.

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And what about Bitcoin? In February 2022, many expected the cryptocurrency to shine as “digital gold” for Russians or Ukrainians. However, in the first weeks BTC largely mirrored tech stocks: its price fell during the initial panic. Later, though, once the acute risk of a global war subsided, Bitcoin turned upward. First, it benefited from the broader rebound in risk assets in March. Second, speculation emerged that Russia and sanctioned individuals might use crypto to bypass restrictions, which increased expectations of demand. As a result, in the 60 days after February 24, Bitcoin gained around 15%, compared with a modest rise in the S&P 500. It was another hint for traders that BTC has its own dynamics: it panics along with everything else at first, but under favorable conditions it can recover faster. Gold, as in other wars, played the role of a rapid but not long-lasting hedge: a sharp jump followed by a gradual decline once the market’s attention shifted back to macroeconomics.

Banking panic and the yen carry trade unwind

But the summer of 2024 produced a very different scenario. When the Bank of Japan raised rates, investors began rapidly unwinding strategies built on cheap yen funding, which had previously been borrowed at scale to buy stocks in other countries. This triggered a true “tsunami”: on August 5, the Japanese market suffered its worst crash in four decades, dragging US and European equities down with it.

In that situation, Bitcoin did not collapse, but neither did it become a safe haven, posting only a modest 3% gain over two months. Gold, by contrast, reinforced its status as the leading defensive asset, rising 9%. When liquidity is drained from the market and borrowing becomes more difficult, speculative assets usually lose their appeal. Gold, meanwhile, benefits from broad fear and from institutional demand for proven protection. This episode was a reminder that when the system runs short on liquidity, capital still chooses gold.

Trade shocks and tariff policy

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Against this backdrop, gold emerged as the clear leader. Since tariff barriers inevitably accelerate inflation, the precious metal hit fresh all-time highs, rising above $3,000 per ounce. The logic for investors was simple: gold protects against the erosion of money’s value and tends to benefit if central banks are forced to cut rates in order to support an economy slowing under the weight of trade restrictions.

In the first days after the tariff announcements, Bitcoin behaved like a typical risk asset, slipping somewhat alongside technology stocks. But later the picture changed. Pressure on the dollar’s status and growing global financial fragmentation pushed capital to seek out “neutral” assets. Once it became clear that the new tariffs could undermine the dominance of the US currency in international settlements, interest in Bitcoin as an apolitical instrument increased. As a result, within a few months of the trade restrictions being introduced, the cryptocurrency once again outperformed both gold and the broader stock market.

The 2026 shock from escalation in the Middle East

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Over nearly a month from the start of the escalation, the S&P 500 lost more than 4%, reflecting geopolitical fears and expensive energy. Bitcoin, by contrast, posted a moderate gain of around 4%, helped in part by the fact that it trades 24/7: traders were able to react quickly to shifting headlines even on weekends and holidays, when traditional exchanges were closed.

This story is not over yet, so it is still too early to draw final conclusions. Still, one thing is already visible: gold does not always stay elevated throughout an entire crisis, while Bitcoin, despite its volatility, is increasingly behaving like an indicator of the market’s expectations about the scale and duration of shocks.

Lessons for investors

Second, classic safe havens are not universal. Gold tends to rise instantly in the first wave of chaos, but its rally often fades once monetary factors come into play. In both 2022 and 2026, we saw gold lose its “war premium” as soon as central banks signaled a tough fight against inflation. In systemic banking crises, however, the metal tends to hold up better because it directly benefits from falling trust in financial institutions.

Third, Bitcoin has firmly secured a place in the crisis-response toolkit — but with an important caveat. In the middle of an acute sell-off, cryptocurrency falls alongside stocks because investors want cash and dump the most volatile assets first. But if a shock leads to money printing, rate cuts, or a weakening of trust in traditional currencies, Bitcoin becomes a leader in the recovery phase. The statistics show that over the two months following most crises, BTC delivered higher returns than either gold or the S&P 500.

So the main lesson is simple: markets assess not only the risk itself, but also how authorities respond to it. Stocks held up in 2020 because of stimulus, while Bitcoin surged in 2023 because of banking-sector stress. There is no universal shelter, which is why the best strategy remains a cool head and diversification. Gold, Bitcoin, and equities all play different roles depending on the “temperature” of the storm. The investor’s task is not to jump from one asset to another after every headline, but to understand the nature of the current crisis and maintain a balanced portfolio.