Nvidia stock rises above $181 despite OpenAI deal remaining unsigned

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Nvidia stock rises

Highlights

- Nvidia stock remains resilient, trading above $181 despite the OpenAI infrastructure deal still being unsigned.

- Technical indicators suggest the stock is in a healthy consolidation phase with strong support near $170.

- Continued AI demand and potential large-scale partnerships keep the bullish outlook intact.

Key technical levels are now forming around the $175–185 range. The intraday low touched $179.99, while resistance is firming near the $185.50 zone. Below current levels, the 50-day moving average, hovering near $171, offers the next key support area. Historically, Nvidia tends to find buyers around this band in periods of consolidation, particularly when broader semiconductor sentiment remains bullish. The 200-day moving average, currently well below at around $140, confirms the strength of Nvidia’s longer-term trend and reduces the likelihood of a deep correction.

Momentum indicators are neutral. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in the mid-50s, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions.The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) recently crossed below its signal line, suggesting the stock may remain range-bound in the near term unless new catalysts emerge. Stochastic oscillators are also hovering in mid-territory, offering no immediate reversal signal but highlighting potential for volatility if a breakout occurs.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (October 2025 - December 2025). Source: TradingView

Volume has remained strong, with over 182 million shares traded intraday, reflecting active interest despite the pause in price acceleration. This elevated trading activity signals that institutional participation remains high, particularly from funds looking to maintain exposure to the AI theme. Technically, Nvidia appears to be in a healthy pullback phase within a longer-term uptrend. As long as the stock holds above $170–172, the bullish thesis remains intact.

OpenAI infrastructure deal delayed, but AI demand still dominates

The news dominating the narrative around Nvidia this week is the revelation that the reported $100 billion infrastructure partnership with OpenAI is not yet finalized. While initial reports had suggested Nvidia would co-develop massive AI data centers with OpenAI, supplying chips and funding infrastructure in a 10 GW-scale buildout, CFO Colette Kress clarified on December 2 that the project is still at the “letter of intent” stage.

This clarification temporarily tempered investor enthusiasm. However, it also underscores Nvidia’s strategic role in the AI ecosystem. Even the possibility of a $100 billion deal points to the company’s unmatched positioning in AI compute. Moreover, these chips — had they been committed — were not part of Nvidia’s existing $500 billion backlog, meaning a finalized deal would have effectively expanded the company’s future pipeline by 20%.

Despite the delay, the broader AI infrastructure trend remains intact. Demand for Nvidia’s advanced GPUs continues to surge, led by hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta, as well as emerging AI firms seeking to train large language models. Importantly, Nvidia is not solely reliant on OpenAI. The company’s diversified client base includes nearly all major AI labs and cloud providers globally.

Range-bound near-term, with bullish potential into 2025

In a base-case scenario, assuming stable macro conditions and consistent AI demand, Nvidia could rally toward $195–200 in the next 1–2 months. The upside would be driven by broader tech market recovery and anticipation of new AI partnerships or chip orders. Should the OpenAI deal finalize or equivalent contracts be announced, a breakout above $200 is plausible, targeting the post-split all-time high of $212.

On the downside, if the AI spend cycle slows, or if regulatory scrutiny affects large AI infrastructure projects, Nvidia may drift back toward the $165–170 support band. That would still be a healthy correction within the broader uptrend. Such a pullback could also create a more attractive entry point for long-term investors seeking exposure to AI infrastructure growth.

Nvidia has made a $2 billion equity investment in Synopsys to strengthen its position in the chip design ecosystem. Acquired through open-market purchases at an average price of $414.79 per share, the deal gives Nvidia a substantial minority stake in the leading EDA software provider.

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