Silver price forecast: XAG/USD holds in 4-day range ahead of PCE inflation data

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PCE data set to steer silver breakout

Highlights

Silver trades between $56.4 and $58.97 as traders await the key U.S. PCE inflation report.
Jobless claims data lifted Dollar strength, but silver buyers defended critical $56.4 support.
A hot Core PCE print could trigger a bearish breakout from silver’s current range.

On Thursday, price briefly tested the lower end of the range following upbeat U.S. jobless claims data. The U.S. Department of Labour reported a decline in Initial Jobless Claims to 191,000 against a forecast of 220,000. This stronger-than-expected reading strengthened the U.S. dollar and weighed on commodities, including silver. Yet, buyers defended the $56.4 support level, allowing price to recover into Friday’s session.

Silver price dynamics (Oct - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

By the start of Friday’s European session, silver had climbed over 2% from the day’s open at $57, reaching intraday highs near $58.5. That move retraced Thursday’s loss and confirmed the resilience of short-term support. The 20 EMA on the 4-hour chart, currently holding near $57.5, provided additional momentum for the rebound and could act as an anchor point for bulls heading into the key U.S. inflation report.

Traders weigh PCE data and Ukraine peace outlook for silver directional bias

The Core PCE Price Index report, due later in the North American session, now stands as the pivotal catalyst. A hotter-than-expected print above the 0.2% forecast would lift the dollar and threaten a bearish breakout beneath the current range. In contrast, a soft inflation reading would fuel rate cut bets and open the path for silver to test uncharted levels above the $60 milestone.S

While macro data drives the fundamental narrative, geopolitical tension also adds to safe-haven demand. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comment about the uncertain future of Ukraine peace talks has elevated geopolitical risk sentiment. This backdrop could intensify investor demand for metals like silver if risk-off flows return.

Technicals, fundamentals, and macro risk factors are now converging. Silver’s consolidation phase may break decisively once the PCE inflation data is released. A push above $58.97 would set up a bullish continuation into historical price discovery, while a close below $56.4 would signal a bearish shift in market tone.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver fell 2% from its record high as traders booked profits after an eight-day rally. Low trading volume and fading momentum signalled weakening conviction behind the previous uptrend.

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