Silver price forecast: XAG/USD falls 2% amid profit-taking from record high

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Highlights

Silver fell 2% from record high as traders booked profits after an eight-day rally.
Rising channel break near $56.6 signals bearish pressure within broader bullish context.
Jobless claims data will determine whether silver regains upward traction soon.

The month opened on a strong note as buyers pushed price into new territory and printed fresh records, although each move into uncharted highs was followed by deeper pullbacks that slowed momentum. The structure that held these swings together formed a slightly rising channel, but the gains lacked strong volume support during the last two sessions, which signalled fading conviction beneath the bullish pressure.

The prior session produced the latest intraday high at 58.97, setting a new all-time high. The advance followed softer United States private payroll data for November since the ADP report showed a drop of 32,000 jobs. This pointed to labour market weakness and caused the Greenback to fall sharply to a five week low. Silver benefited from the weaker United States currency, but the response was limited as profit-taking started almost immediately and restricted any attempt to build a stronger continuation from that macro catalyst. The reaction revealed that traders were more focused on banking gains after an eight day winning streak than on chasing fresh upside.

Silver price dynamics (Oct - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview

Profit-taking extended into today’s Asian and European sessions and pushed silver to an intraday low near 56.6, which broke the short-term bullish structure. The decline also breached the base of the rising channel that shaped price movement in the opening days of December, which indicated that early-month momentum had faded. As European trading advanced, price attempted a recovery back toward 57.3, which is the first major retest zone since it aligns with the four-hour 20 EMA. That region now stands as the structural test that decides whether silver continues lower or regains upward traction.

Silver outlook hinges on jobless claims and potential rebound on $56.4 support zone

Failure to move decisively above 57.3 opens the path to a retest of the week’s opening price at 56.4. A move through that level erases the positive week-to-date performance and shifts the entire weekly picture into negative territory. Silver currently trades over 2% lower on the day but still shows a 1.6% gain on the week, which signals that short-term pressure has surfaced inside a broader positive early-month context.

Market attention now turns to the United States' Initial Jobless Claims release later today, since the data will shape expectations ahead of next week’s interest rate decision. Any softness in the report could weaken the Greenback further and give silver a chance to stabilise above the broken structure. A firm reading could strengthen the currency and reinforce the short-term bearish tilt that formed after yesterday’s high.

In recent analysis, we discussed how silver hit a record high of $58.92 before retracing as traders awaited key U.S. economic data. Dollar weakness and rate-cut hopes fueled its eight-day winning streak.

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