Silver price forecast: XAG/USD extends record run to $58.90 ahead of key U.S. jobs data
Silver price pushed to another record high of $58.92 in today’s Asian session with a 0.77% advance, surpassing Monday’s all-time high of $58.82. This move marked the latest phase of a strong December start for silver, after seven consecutive sessions of gains that have been driven largely by persistent weakness in the dollar index.
The dollar has stayed on a downward path since last week and now trades near a two-week low, creating favorable conditions for further strength in silver. Tuesday’s action also confirmed silver’s relative strength compared to gold, which closed bearish, while silver held firm.
Highlights
- Silver hits record $58.92 before retracing as traders await key US economic data.
- Dollar weakness and rate-cut hopes fuel silver’s eight-day winning streak in December.
- Traders eye $60 target if the upcoming U.S. ADP and ISM data disappoint and pressure the dollar.
From the new all-time high posted earlier today, silver retraced through the European session to an intraday low of $57.50. Despite the pullback, the intraday bullish structure is intact. The latest higher low stands at $56.55 and is aligned to the rising 50 EMA on the one-hour chart. As the EMA trails the uptrend, it has climbed to $57.50, where it establishes near-term support and sets the stage for a possible rebound toward higher uncharted territory.
Silver price dynamics (Nov - Dec 2025). Source: Tradingview
The slowdown in momentum seen during the European session reflects a wave of profit-taking ahead of key United States data releases. Traders are positioned for the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI numbers that are due later today. Both datasets have the potential to shift short-term sentiment in the dollar, which will directly influence silver’s direction.
Weak ADP and ISM data could open silver path toward $60
The ADP release has a forecast of 5K compared to the previous reading of 42K. A result that exceeds the forecast is typically positive for the dollar and negative for metals. The data offers an early indication of labor market performance and influences expectations for consumer spending strength. The ISM Services PMI has a forecast of 52.0 against the previous value of 52.4. A reading above 50 signals industry expansion, and a higher-than-forecast print tends to favor the dollar and weigh on silver.
However, market focus has been centered on Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and those expectations have strengthened in recent sessions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now assign nearly an 89% probability to a rate cut at the conclusion of the December 9 to 10 meeting, up from 71% a week earlier. Therefore, if the data report comes off weak today, it would reinforce the case for easing and pressure the dollar further. Such a scenario would set silver up for another strong surge into uncharted territory above today’s Asian high and create a clear path toward the $60 milestone.
In recent analysis, we discussed how silver traded near $58 after a breakout above the double-top, supported by a dovish Fed tone. RSI signaled overbought conditions as weakening volume hinted at a possible correction.
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