Silver holds steady after US strikes on Iranian positions

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Silver drops 0.39% today to $67.09

Highlights

Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have driven increased safe-haven demand for silver.
Market volatility is elevated amid ongoing U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations and persistent risks to global energy supply routes.
Silver maintains bullish momentum with strong buyer signals, an expected trading range of $63.79 to $70.39, and a 67% probability of further gains, though short-term consolidation is possible due to overbought conditions.

Safe-haven flows rise amid US-Iran tensions and ceasefire talks

U.S.-Iran tensions intensified following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and targeted strikes on Iranian positions by the United States, leading to increased safe-haven demand for silver. This period has also seen volatility linked to hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire and peace deal discussions, as President Donald Trump confirmed ongoing negotiations. Persistent instability and heightened risk to global energy transit routes have acted as central catalysts for recent market moves, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Upside momentum faces resistance as overbought signals emerge

On the H4 chart, XAG is trading above its MA-20 at $65.19 and MA-50 at $65.90; however, the price remains below the long-term MA-200 at $75.70 on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $64.76 acts as immediate support, with the main volatility band ranging from the $63.79 support area up to $70.39 resistance. Momentum indicators show a strong buy bias, with MACD, ADX, CCI, and BBP supporting continued upside, while RSI is at 59.4—indicating moderate bullishness. Overbought signals from Stoch RSI and BBP, alongside a neutral Awesome Oscillator, highlight some risk of short-term exhaustion and potential for consolidation.

Range-bound trading likely as bullish breakout risks build

Over the next several days, silver is expected to remain within the $63.79 to $70.39 corridor, reflecting the typical volatility band relative to current levels. There is a 67% probability of continued gains, while the chance of a downside move is estimated at 33%. The baseline scenario anticipates that prices will hold within this established range. A bullish breakout above resistance could trigger additional upward momentum, while a decisive close below $63.79 support would likely invite further declines.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees silver trading defensively after a period of geopolitical volatility and fading safe-haven momentum. He notes that technicals remain constructive above key moving averages, but long-term trend resistance is not yet overcome. Price action favors a rangebound outlook, with near-term risks of consolidation. "Until silver reclaims the daily MA-200 at $75.70, I remain cautious and expect sideways or corrective moves within $63.79–$70.39."

Earlier, analysts noted that silver’s price action was dominated by heightened geopolitical tensions and persistent bearish technical momentum. The new upward bias in momentum indicators, coupled with evolving US-Iran dynamics, suggests traders should closely monitor for a potential bullish breakout in the event of a sustained move above the prevailing resistance zone.

Source of Data: XAG Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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