Silver price forecast: December strength holds despite early signs of momentum cooling
Silver jumped as much as 2.6% during early Asian hours on Monday, December 1st, lifting price to a fresh record high of $57.86 before paring gains near $57 in the European session.
The early upside is favored by renewed speculation for a Fed rate cut this month, amid dovish commentary from Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams. Their tone reinforced market conviction that monetary easing could resume in early 2025, weighing on the dollar index, which fell to a two-week low, providing support for silver.
Highlights
Silver trades near $58 after breakout above double-top, supported by dovish Fed tone.
Silver RSI signals overbought as volume slows, hinting at possible correction toward $54.4.
Dollar weakness and Fed cut speculation sustain silver’s bullish momentum into December trading sessions.
Last week, the precious metal closed November on a strong note, advancing over 12% in a five-day streak that pushed price through the double-top resistance at $54.4. This former high, tested in both October and early November, had capped silver's upside attempts for weeks. The November breakout and monthly close above that level confirmed a bullish continuation and triggered fresh buying interest into December.
Silver price dynamics (Nov 2025). Source: Tradingview
However, technical signals suggest the recent rally may be entering a phase of exhaustion. Daily and 4-hour RSI readings have now crossed into overbought territory, proposing the bullish move may be overstretched. More importantly, silver’s daily traded volume has declined consistently over the past several sessions, hinting at fading momentum even as price moved higher. This divergence between price and volume raises the likelihood of a short-term correction.
Traders eye ISM PMI for short-term volatility in dollar–silver negative correlation
In addition, geopolitical reports from The Guardian indicate a productive meeting between U.S. and Ukrainian officials regarding peace talks. If geopolitical tensions cool, demand for silver as a safe-haven hedge could decrease, reinforcing the need for a technical pullback from overheated levels.
The next immediate macro event is today’s U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI release. Consensus expectations are for a reading of 49.0, just above the previous 48.7 print but still in contraction territory. A stronger-than-expected figure could support the dollar and limit silver’s advance, while a weaker print may further fuel the dovish Fed narrative and extend dollar weakness.
Should a correction unfold amidst the release of the economic data in the North American session, the previous resistance at $54.4 is now expected to serve as a near-term support level. Its role as a breakout pivot reinforces its importance as the key zone to watch in the coming sessions.
In recent analysis, we discussed how silver extended its five-day winning streak to $53.9 as rate cut optimism built momentum. The rally gained over 11% since November 21, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index.
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