Weekly forecast: Door investigation and weak deliveries now challenge Tesla rally
After hitting a record high of $490 on December 16, Tesla shares lost 3% last week and were trading at $475 at the time of writing. Investors now need to digest the recent all-time high and separate promotional claims from real car deliveries to international markets.
Tesla’s progress in autonomous driving and chip production has allowed the company to attract investor attention by positioning itself as a major AI player. However, reports of a U.S. auto-safety regulator investigation into the electric door-opening mechanism of Tesla Model 3 cars produced in 2022 have brought many optimists back down to earth.
It is reported that Tesla has indeed faced issues with models featuring electric doors, especially the Model X with Falcon Wing Doors, as well as some other models with automated systems. Due to their complex construction and multiple sensors, such doors could fail to open, open too slowly, or respond incorrectly — for example in parking areas, where they could jam or malfunction in tight spaces.
In addition, bullish sentiment is being tested by weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter delivery figures. Analysts now forecast Tesla’s global Q4 deliveries between 415,000 and 435,000 units, below both the company’s earlier targets and market expectations.
Key challenges include weaker demand in the U.S., aggravated by the expiration of some EV tax incentives, as well as rising competition from Chinese automakers such as BYD. In Europe, Tesla is reportedly losing market share as cheaper locally produced EVs attract more buyers.
Strong position still draws investors
These factors prevent TSLA from pushing toward a new ATH of $500, but technical indicators allow the stock to stay above the 20- and 50-day SMAs in the $445–$460 range. A broad support zone is also located at $390–$420. However, given bullish dominance, the stock is likely to trade near $460–$470.
Tesla stock daily chart. Source: TradingView
A renewed rally is possible if Tesla announces strong delivery numbers, new robotaxi approvals, or convincing developments in regulatory investigations. In that case, TSLA could reach the psychological $500 mark, break above it, and test the $525–$550 range in early 2026.
As we wrote, Tesla stock tests $490 as robotaxi optimism offsets delivery and regulatory headwinds
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