Silver price forecast: XAG hits record highs near $94 as tariff risk and tight supply drive demand

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Silver breaks into price discovery

Highlights

Silver trades near $94 after breaking to new record highs.
Price is far above all major moving averages, confirming a powerful bullish trend.
Tariff threats and tight physical supply continue to drive safe-haven demand.

Despite brief hesitation around possible tariff exemptions for critical minerals, price action shows buyers remain firmly in control. The move marks a decisive shift from consolidation into full price discovery. Silver has absorbed repeated volatility shocks without meaningful pullbacks, underscoring the strength of demand and the absence of willing sellers at current levels.

Breakout extends as technical structure stays firmly bullish

On the daily chart, silver is in a clear and aggressive uptrend with no signs of structural damage. Price is trading far above all major EMAs, confirming sustained trend strength rather than a speculative spike. The 20-day EMA near $80.3 continues to guide the advance higher, while the 50-day EMA around $68.9 and the 100-day EMA near $59.3 sit well below current price, highlighting how extended the move has become. The 200-day EMA near $50 underscores the longer-term bullish regime that has been building for months.

SILVER price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

This wide separation between price and EMAs reflects momentum-driven price discovery. Unlike earlier rallies that struggled at key technical ceilings, the current move shows little overhead resistance, allowing silver to climb rapidly as buyers chase exposure.

Momentum indicators support the upside while flagging short-term risks. Daily RSI remains above 70, signaling strong bullish pressure. While this does not imply an imminent reversal, it does increase the risk of sharp, fast pullbacks if momentum cools. So far, however, every dip has been shallow and aggressively bought, reinforcing confidence that buyers remain in control.

Intraday structure remains constructive rather than fragile. On the 30-minute chart, silver is consolidating above former resistance near $92, which has now flipped into support. Supertrend remains bullish and Parabolic SAR continues to track below price, confirming that short-term trend control rests with buyers. The market is digesting gains through tight ranges rather than unwinding them, a healthy pattern following a steep advance. Immediate resistance sits near $95, while a clean break above that level would open the door toward the psychological $100 mark.

Tariffs and supply constraints intensify the fundamental case

The fundamental backdrop continues to justify the technical strength. President Trump’s tariff threats against eight European nations have reignited safe-haven flows across precious metals, with silver benefiting alongside gold. The risk of escalating trade tensions has increased demand for assets perceived as protection against policy uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

At the same time, silver’s rally is being amplified by persistent structural supply constraints. Physical availability remains tight, particularly in the London market, where inventories have been strained by sustained demand. Silver’s inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list has further highlighted its strategic importance, even as short-term policy decisions introduce volatility around exemptions and trade rules.

Unlike previous episodes where speculative demand faded quickly, the current rally is being reinforced by physical market dynamics. Tight supply has increased price sensitivity during demand surges, allowing relatively modest inflows to drive outsized moves. This combination of macro risk and structural scarcity has created a powerful tailwind that continues to support higher prices.

Market outlook

From a tradeability perspective, silver remains a buy-on-dips market rather than one to chase at extremes. As long as price holds above the $90-$92 support zone, the bullish structure remains intact. A deeper pullback toward the rising 20-day EMA near $80 would still be considered corrective within the broader uptrend, not a trend failure.

Only a sustained break below $80 would signal a more meaningful shift in structure and force a reassessment of the bullish bias. Until that happens, momentum and fundamentals remain aligned in favor of higher prices, even if volatility increases along the way.

Previously, we noted that silver’s earlier pullbacks represented consolidation within strength rather than trend breakdowns. The latest breakout confirms that view. With tariffs, geopolitical uncertainty, and tight physical supply converging, silver remains firmly long-biased as the market continues to explore higher price territory.

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