Nvidia stock rises 3% after China approves H200 AI chip shipments

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Nvidia shares jumped 3% after China approved initial shipments of its H200 AI chip to major local tech firms.
The approval marks a partial easing of U.S.-China tech restrictions and supports Nvidia’s data center revenue outlook.
Technical indicators show bullish momentum, with the stock trading above key moving averages and eyeing a breakout toward $200.

From a technical analysis perspective, Nvidia remains in a consolidation phase but is now testing the upper boundary of its short-term range. The stock’s 200-day moving average is currently at $184.21, which it has successfully defended for multiple sessions, reinforcing this level as a strong support base. The 50-day moving average, near $192.50, is now acting as a short-term ceiling. A daily close above this mark could invite a fresh leg higher.

Short-term resistance levels are clustered at $193.10 and $195.60. If NVDA breaks through this band with volume, the next target would be the psychological $200 level, followed by its 52-week high at $212.19. On the downside, immediate support rests at $188.70 and $184.20. A failure to hold the latter would place $179.50 and $175.00 into view.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (November 2025 - January 2025). Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators are pointing higher. The relative strength index (RSI) has risen above 60, signaling increasing bullish momentum but still below overbought levels. MACD lines have recently crossed into positive territory, suggesting improving trend strength. Overall, the technical outlook has turned moderately bullish in the short term, with a breakout scenario gaining credibility.

China approves H200 chip imports despite tech standoff

Beijing has cleared Nvidia’s H200 AI chip for shipment to select Chinese companies. The approval, which appears to apply to a limited volume of chips and primarily targets large cloud providers such as Alibaba and Tencent, is a notable shift from China’s earlier hesitation over advanced AI semiconductors.

The H200 chip is a slightly scaled-down version of Nvidia’s high-end H100 GPU, designed to comply with updated U.S. export restrictions. While it does not represent the most advanced AI compute unit in Nvidia’s arsenal, its green-lighted shipment to China is seen as both a commercial win and a sign that regulatory tension may be stabilizing in some areas.

Industry insiders view the approval as a tactical decision by Chinese regulators — one that balances the push for domestic chip development with immediate infrastructure needs for AI development. Despite heavy investment in domestic alternatives, Chinese tech firms continue to rely heavily on Nvidia hardware for training large-scale models. Reports earlier this month suggested companies were even exploring gray-market channels to access Nvidia chips, underscoring demand resilience.

Nvidia setting up for potential breakout toward $200+

With the H200 development easing near-term geopolitical headwinds, Nvidia appears poised for a potential upside breakout. If the stock sustains momentum and closes above $193.50, the rally could extend toward $200 in the coming sessions. A decisive move beyond that would likely reintroduce the 52-week high of $212.19 as the next upside objective.

In the base case, Nvidia is expected to trade in a $188–$200 range this week, with a bullish bias. Positive follow-through from institutional buyers and strong guidance in the upcoming earnings cycle could support a broader rally into February. However, traders should monitor any renewed export control headlines from U.S. regulators, as policy remains a material risk to Nvidia’s upside trajectory.

Nvidia has invested $2 billion in CoreWeave, acquiring Class A shares at $87.20 each. The deal strengthens Nvidia’s position in AI cloud infrastructure through deeper ties with the rapidly growing provider.

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