What is behind MercadoLibre recent drop in value today

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MercadoLibre slides 2.02% to $1,966 today

Highlights

MercadoLibre reported Q3 2025 net income of $421 million, up 6% year-over-year, but below analysts’ expectations.
Net sales increased 39% to $7.4 billion on a currency-neutral basis, while institutional ownership declined in the latest quarter.
MercadoLibre traded at $1,966.52, below all major moving averages, with strong bearish momentum and high probability of further decline toward $1,905.89 support.

Earnings miss and retreat in institutional ownership weigh on sentiment

In Q3 2025, MercadoLibre reported net income of $421 million, a 6% year-over-year increase, though this result came in below analysts’ estimates. Net sales rose 39% to $7.4 billion on a currency-neutral basis. Institutional ownership decreased in the latest quarter, and the company will release its Q4 2025 earnings on February 19, 2026.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent technical and fundamental weakness in MercadoLibre. He notes the price remains under all major moving averages, with strong bearish momentum confirmed by today’s action and oscillators. Lower-than-expected net income and a decline in institutional ownership add to the negative sentiment. He cautions that the probability of further downside exceeds 80%, and the support at $1,905.89 is vulnerable. "I view the current environment as unfavorable for bulls — unless a decisive shift in momentum occurs, sellers remain firmly in control."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, takes a constructive view despite short-term setbacks for MercadoLibre. He highlights robust 39% year-over-year sales growth and believes fundamental demand remains strong. The upcoming Q4 earnings offer potential upside catalysts, and a technical reversal may occur if the stock reclaims $2,128.77. Karapetjanc remains optimistic about longer-term structural growth, saying, "I expect MercadoLibre’s positive business momentum to drive renewed investor confidence and fresh opportunities for upside."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, observes that MercadoLibre’s technical structure is weak but could set up for a tactical reversal. He points to the oversold Stoch RSI and consolidation near support as a possible contrarian trade setup. Volatility bands suggest the $1,905.89 level is key for short-term direction. "A sharp bounce is possible if support holds, though trend followers should wait for confirmation above resistance."

Bearish momentum dominates as oversold signals and weak trend converge

Momentum indicators signal a persistent bearish backdrop, with the MACD showing a firm sell and weak ADX reflecting low trend strength. Daily RSI and CCI are both in sell territory, while the Stoch RSI reveals an oversold condition, suggesting the stock could be nearing a technical bounce. BBP highlights that sellers are dominating intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator supports the bearish momentum. The price declined 2.02% today, with no real gap between yesterday’s close and today’s open, and is now trading near the lower end of today’s range ($1,965.69 — $2,005.02). Intraday volatility is moderate, and the tone is one of clear pressure following the open. Momentum and oscillators align on weakness, with strong selling confirmed by the day’s performance.

Last time, analysts noted that MercadoLibre Inc. is trading near key short-term moving averages but remains below its longer-term average, with negative momentum indicators such as MACD, ADX, and oscillators pointing to mild oversold conditions and ongoing bearish sentiment. Despite recent upward price moves and a positive gap at the open, these are not fully corroborated by core momentum readings, suggesting resistance near current levels and persistent downside risk unless sustained bullish confirmation emerges.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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