What is behind MercadoLibre stock's recent drop in value today

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MercadoLibre slides 3.67% today

Highlights

MercadoLibre reported Q4 2025 diluted EPS of $11.03, missing consensus and falling 12.5% year over year.
Institutional investors showed mixed positioning, with some exiting or trimming stakes despite MercadoLibre's expansion into logistics and fintech.
Shares trade below key moving averages amid bearish momentum, with a projected five-day range of $1,549.81 to $1,679.37 and downside risk if support breaks.

Investor rebalancing as earnings miss heightens selling pressure

MercadoLibre reported Q4 2025 diluted earnings per share of $11.03, below consensus estimates and marking a 12.5% decline year over year, with net income at $559 million. Several institutional investors made notable portfolio adjustments: NWI Management LP exited its 42,700-share stake, while Ribbit Management and Moneda S.A. Administradora General de Fondos increased their holdings as MercadoLibre expanded logistics and fintech operations. Sustainable Growth Advisers LP reduced its stake by 17% and GW Henssler & Associates Ltd. trimmed holdings by 8.6%, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees MercadoLibre trading firmly below all main moving averages, underscoring sustained technical weakness. Institutional activity reveals a split: some investors exited or trimmed positions following the disappointing earnings, while others added exposure. However, downside momentum and selling pressure dominate, as several critical indicators confirm a bearish structure. Kharitonov warns that the weak fundamentals and persistent negative sentiment could drive price action lower in the short term. "I do not expect a sustainable rebound unless MercadoLibre breaks above the MA-20 and reverses the present negative outlook."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges that MercadoLibre's quarterly results fell below consensus, but highlights that major institutional names increased positions as the company expands in logistics and fintech. He sees persistent volatility, yet believes the underlying bullish structure remains intact in the mid-term. Karapetjanc points out that increased holdings by strategic investors signal confidence in future growth. "Further expansion and strategic positioning suggest MercadoLibre remains a strong candidate for renewed upside once near-term uncertainties fade."

Seller dominance as technical levels and momentum confirm weakness

MercadoLibre is trading under the MA-20 ($1,673.37), MA-50 ($1,726.46), and well below the MA-200 ($2,023.44), indicating short-term and medium-term seller pressure with a bearish long-term structure. Nearest dynamic support is seen at the Ichimoku Kijun level of $1,692.50, with MA-50 acting as resistance above. Momentum signals are negative: MACD points to strong downside and Average Directional Index (ADX) shows a lack of clear trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reflects mid-range, but Stochastic RSI is flagging overbought and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) is neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 53.89 signals buyers dominated recent intraday action, though this is classified as overbought. Awesome Oscillator (AO) is neutral, and daily action confirms the weakness with the stock falling $63.61 or 3.67%. The session registered a downside gap of roughly $12.86, and the last price is near today's low, as intraday volatility stands at 3.98%. The overall intraday tone is pressured following the open, with momentum indicators supporting the bearish turn.

Earlier, analysts noted that MercadoLibre faced lingering downside risks due to sustained bearish technical signals and waning institutional support. With the latest earnings miss and ongoing seller pressure, traders should monitor for a potential move below the $1,549.81 support level, as a breakdown could accelerate downside momentum in the near term.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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