MercadoLibre stock price forecast: $1,580 support in focus as MELI drops 3.12%

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MercadoLibre drops 3.12% to $1,676.97

Highlights

Major institutional holders, including Sustainable Growth Advisers and NWI Management, sharply reduced MercadoLibre positions in Q4, elevating market supply.
New inflows from Ribbit Management and Moneda S.A. offset some outflows, but net institutional selling outweighed incremental demand despite fintech and logistics initiatives.
MELI trades with persistent bearish technical signals and elevated volatility, with a likely range of $1,580 to $1,710 over the next week.

Institutional outflows outweigh selective buying amid logistics initiatives

Sustainable Growth Advisers LP reduced its stake in MercadoLibre by 17.0% during the fourth quarter, selling 15,879 shares according to MarketBeat, which reflects a significant decrease in institutional ownership and may have contributed to increased selling pressure. NWI Management LP was also reported to have exited its 42,700-share position, further reducing institutional presence in the name and providing additional supply to the market. Meanwhile, Ribbit Management and Moneda S.A. Administradora General de Fondos increased their positions as MercadoLibre pursues logistics and fintech initiatives in Latin America, though this incremental demand appears to have been outweighed by net institutional outflows.

Technical weakness persists as momentum indicators flag downtrend risk

Technically, MELI trades just above the 20-day moving average at $1,673.37, but remains below the 50-day ($1,726.46) and well under the 200-day ($2,023.44) moving averages. The Ichimoku Kijun level sits at $1,692.50, serving as immediate resistance. On the momentum side, the daily MACD signals a strong sell, ADX is low indicating lack of trend strength, and the RSI is mid-range, pointing to mild buying interest. Stoch RSI is deeply overbought, while CCI is neutral. BBP shows underlying buyer dominance despite overbought conditions, and the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The stock opened with a minor gap down and is trading near today's intraday low, reflecting pronounced volatility and selling pressure post-open.

Limited upside as persistent bearish signals drive sideways outlook

In the short-term, MELI is expected to remain within a volatility band of $1,580 to $1,710 over the next five trading days. There is a very low probability (under 20%) of a significant price increase, as persistent weekly bearish signals persist. The baseline scenario is for sideways movement between $1,580 and $1,710. If the price breaks above $1,700, further gains toward $1,750 are possible; conversely, a break below $1,580 could trigger additional declines toward the $1,540 area.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees that recent institutional outflows have added weight to short-term selling pressure on MercadoLibre. Despite the strong long-term growth story, technical levels suggest resistance and limited upside for now. The expert notes that renewed buying from select fund managers is a positive sign, but it does not yet outweigh the recent net selling. Outlook remains constructive, with recovery potential tied to market stabilization above $1,700. "I remain optimistic on MercadoLibre’s fundamentals and believe a sustained move above $1,700 could trigger renewed momentum to the upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that MercadoLibre’s stock faced cautious sentiment and subdued technical momentum despite ongoing institutional interest and business growth. The latest reduction in institutional ownership, combined with unresolved bearish technicals, signals that downside risks remain elevated, making a break below $1,580 the key level to monitor for further weakness.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.