MercadoLibre stock price forecast: $1,740 resistance as MELI trades up

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MercadoLibre gains 3.29% to $1,702.33

Highlights

MercadoLibre posted Q1 earnings per share of $8.23 on revenue of $8.58 billion, but margin concerns from its growing credit portfolio pressured profit outlook sentiment.
Texas Employees Retirement System increased its MercadoLibre stake by 18.2% to 40,184 shares, signaling persistent institutional demand.
MELI trades in a short-term upward move but faces broader technical weakness, with forecasts favoring range-bound action between $1,660 and $1,740 and higher downside risk.

Profit concerns intensify as credit growth boosts institutional demand

MercadoLibre's recently reported first-quarter results revealed earnings per share of $8.23 on revenue of $8.58 billion, but the market's focus on margin compression due to the company's expanding credit portfolio drove heightened attention to its profitability outlook. Separately, the Employees Retirement System of Texas has notably raised its stake in the company by 18.2% to 40,184 shares, highlighting continued institutional demand for exposure to MercadoLibre's growth. In addition, the company is awaiting regulatory approval in Mexico to manage investment funds through Mercado Pago Fondos, potentially enabling access to a new segment of the financial market.

Mixed technical signals as momentum weakens below major averages

Technically, MELI is trading above the MA-20 of $1,692.54, but remains below the MA-50 at $1,726.44 and well under the MA-200 at $2,035.96. The Ichimoku Kijun level sits at $1,699.00, serving as immediate support just below the current price. Momentum indicators show mixed signals: the MACD is in strong sell territory, while the ADX is low at 15.20, indicating weak trend strength. Oscillators are neutral to weak, with RSI at 45.08 and CCI at –31.94, while the Stoch RSI is overbought at 51.39. The BBP of 1.77 confirms buyer dominance intraday, as volatility has been moderate to high with the price reaching toward session highs.

Sideways movement expected as breakout likelihood diminishes

In the near term, MELI is expected to remain within a volatility band between $1,660 and $1,740 based on typical trading conditions. The probability of a sustained upside breakout above this range is low, and further declines remain more likely given the technical backdrop. A push above $1,740 could indicate short-term bullish extension, while a breach below $1,660 would risk a deeper retracement. The baseline scenario anticipates continued sideways movement anchored by support near recent lows.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the market response to MercadoLibre’s earnings as a reminder that margin compression remains a key risk despite headline growth. He notes that institutional buying offers some support, but technicals do not confirm sustained upside momentum. With indicators mixed and volatility elevated, Kharitonov believes the stock is more likely to stay range-bound than to break higher. "Until MELI clears $1,740 with conviction, I remain defensive and see rebounds as opportunities to reduce risk."

Earlier, analysts noted that MercadoLibre continued to face cautious sentiment from investors due to persistent, mixed technical signals despite strong business performance. The current backdrop of rising institutional interest and pending regulatory developments introduces new upside optionality, making the resolution of the present volatility band between $1,660 and $1,740 particularly significant for near-term positioning.

Source of Data: MELI Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.