American Express stock forecast for 2030: Revenue compounding and 34% ROE support $500 case

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GenZ card acquisition & headquarters investment

Highlights

American Express trades at $327, down 12% from $387 highs after the February 23 selloff on AI disruption concerns.
Stock could reach $450-550 by 2030 if Gen Z cohorts mature into peak earning years and luxury spending sustains.
AXP posted record $72.2B revenue, guided 9-10% growth for 2026, raised dividend 16%, and 65% of new cards went to Millennials and Gen Z.

Unlike other companies in the revamped World Trade Center complex, American Express will be the sole owner and occupant, accommodating around 10,000 employees. The company has indicated that this project will not significantly affect its financial results.

The announcement of the new headquarters serves as a strong signal of confidence from CEO Stephen Squeri. Management believes the business is robust enough to commit to multi-billion-dollar investments five years into the future. However, the market's reaction has been tepid. AXP is trading around $327, down from a 52-week high of $387.49, marking a 12% decline since the start of the year.

On February 23, AXP experienced a sharp drop of 7.5% in a single day, despite no specific news from the company. This selloff was triggered by a viral post outlining a scenario in which AI could lead to the elimination of white-collar jobs, pushing unemployment rates above 10% by mid-2028. During this time, the broader Dow Jones index fell by approximately 820 points. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller mentioned that a strong jobs report in February would support maintaining steady interest rates, dampening expectations for immediate rate cuts.

American Express reported Q4 2025 EPS of $3.53 on revenue of $18.98 billion. Full-year 2025 revenue hit a record $72.2 billion, up 10%. Full-year EPS was $15.38, up 15%. Return on equity was 34%. Net card fees reached a record $10 billion for the year, up 18%. Q4 card fees grew 16% on an FX-adjusted basis, marking the 30th consecutive quarter of double-digit net card fee growth.

Gen Z acquisition reshapes customer base

During Q4 2025, 65% of new card acquisitions came from Millennial and Gen Z consumers. CFO Le Caillec noted these cohorts now make up the largest share of U.S. consumer spending and remain the fastest-growing groups. Gen Z and Millennials now account for 75% of new premium card accounts globally.

A 28-year-old Platinum cardholder who stays for 20 years generates far more lifetime revenue than a 55-year-old acquired today. As younger cohorts enter their peak earning years, spending per card should climb, assuming they stay on the platform.

For 2026, American Express guided for revenue growth of 9% to 10% and EPS of $17.30 to $17.90, with the midpoint above the consensus estimate of $17.40. The company also announced a 16% dividend increase to $0.95 per quarter. American Express returned $7.6 billion to shareholders in 2025, including $2.3 billion in dividends and $5.3 billion in share repurchases.

Berkshire Hathaway owns approximately 151.6 million shares of AXP, roughly 20% of the company, with a cost basis around $1.3 billion from purchases made in the mid-1990s. Even at $327 per share, that stake is worth approximately $49.6 billion.

On February 20, Raymond Joabar, Group President of Global Commercial Services, sold 14,000 shares for approximately $4.77 million.

Analyst Anton Kharitonov said, “The February selloff questioned the future of white-collar income. But American Express does not depend on today’s income profile. It builds lifetime value. If Gen Z cardholders stay engaged as their earnings compound, the revenue base in 2030 will look very different from today’s.”

Recently, American Express tested support near $320 after the February 23 AI disruption selloff before stabilizing at $327 as investors weighed whether Gen Z acquisition trends and a 16% dividend increase justify the premium valuation.

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