Weekly forecast: Record Nvidia earnings overshadowed by rising producer price index

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Highlights

Nvidia stock falls 5% after higher U.S. PPI data shocks market.
Record $68.1B quarterly revenue not enough to offset macro pressures.
Future growth depends on AI adoption and client capex plans.

Two different halves of the week

Nvidia’s stock performance last week can be divided into two distinct periods. In the first half, the stock rose steadily on the back of strong fourth-quarter results ending January 25, 2026. However, after the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, the situation changed dramatically.

Core PPI in January surged well above expectations, raising concerns about persistent inflationary pressures and lowering the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. This triggered a sell-off in risk assets, particularly in the technology sector, leading to declines in stock indices.

Despite reporting record quarterly revenue of $68.1 billion—up 20% from the previous quarter and 73% from a year earlier—and full-year 2026 revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% year-on-year, macroeconomic headwinds erased the week’s initial gains, resulting in a net 5% decline. NVDA traded at $177 at the time of writing.

NVIDIA stock daily chart. Source: TradingView

This correction, however, does not signal fundamental weakness; it reflects the current macroeconomic and political uncertainty, which keeps even market leaders volatile.

“Demand for computing resources is growing exponentially—this is a turning point for agent-based AI… Enterprise adoption of AI agents is accelerating. Our customers are investing in AI computing power—factories that enable the AI industrial revolution and their future growth,” said Jensen Huang, NVIDIA founder and CEO, commenting on the earnings report.

Healthy correction with potential surprises

NVDA stock is expected to continue its correction within an overall uptrend this week. However, market uncertainty remains, and growth will depend on momentum.

The bullish target for the first week of spring is to maintain support at $172–175 and return to $185–190. Catalysts could include lower bond yields, Nasdaq stabilization, and positive AI sector news. A break above $190 could trigger a retest of local highs.

If this does not occur, NVDA may consolidate between $170 and $182, building strength for the next upward move.

Further macroeconomic negativity or, for example, an escalation of export restrictions against China could push NVDA below $170 and toward $162–165 (50-day MA zone), with further pressure potentially reaching $155.

Additionally, U.S. Treasury yields remain a key pressure factor, as the “hot” PPI increased Nvidia’s cost of capital. Investor confidence will also hinge on capex plans of Nvidia’s largest clients—hyperscalers and cloud providers. Confirmation of continued data center and AI expansion could quickly restore confidence and support stock recovery, while even modest investment slowdowns may intensify volatility given high expectations for the ongoing AI supercycle.

As we wrote, Nvidia reports record revenue as market reaction remains muted

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