Amgen stock forecast for 2030: $6B patent exposure challenges $500 level

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AMGN MariTide Denosumab Cliff

Highlights

Amgen trades at $340 with 14 blockbuster products posting $36.8B revenue and 13% volume growth in 2025.
Stock could reach $450-550 by 2030 if MariTide Phase 3 succeeds with monthly dosing and Repatha reaches $6B on primary prevention.
AMGN posts $9.9B Q4 revenue beating estimates, launches six MariTide Phase 3 trials, but faces 28% Prolia and 39% XGEVA declines in 2026.

At $340, every investor wants to know if the company's obesity medication, MariTide, which is currently undergoing six Phase 3 trials, will arrive in time to close the gap and if the growth side can outpace the decline side.

For the fourth quarter, total revenues increased 9% to $9.9 billion. Product sales grew 7%, driven by 10% volume growth. For the full year, total revenues increased 10% to $36.8 billion with 13% volume growth. Adjusted EPS of $5.29 beat consensus estimates of $4.76.

$6B denosumab cliff accelerates in 2026

Prolia sales decreased 10% year-over-year to $1.1 billion in Q4. XGEVA sales decreased 20% to $447 million. For 2026, Amgen expects accelerated sales erosion driven by increased competition as multiple biosimilars have launched globally. Analysts project Prolia and XGEVA sales to decline approximately 28% and 39% respectively in 2026. CVS Health announced it will swap out Amgen's bone disease treatments for lower-cost biosimilar alternatives starting April 1.

Amgen provided 2026 revenue guidance of $37 billion to $38.4 billion with non-GAAP EPS expected to range from $21.60 to $23. The revenue guidance midpoint of $37.7 billion implies roughly 3% growth, a sharp deceleration from 10% in 2025.

MariTide targets monthly dosing advantage

CEO Bradway described MariTide as the only therapy in late-stage development that provides strong efficacy and good tolerability with dosing options of monthly, every other month, or even quarterly. Currently, there are six global Phase 3 studies in progress: MARITIME-1 (for chronic weight management without diabetes), MARITIME-2 (for those with diabetes), MARITIME-CV (focused on cardiovascular outcomes), MARITIME-HF (for heart failure), and MARITIME-OSA-1 (targeting obstructive sleep apnea).

Phase 2 maintenance data showed that participants were able to sustain weight loss with lower doses taken monthly or even quarterly. MariTide's potential edge over Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Eli Lilly's Zepbound lies in its dosing frequency, as both of those leading GLP-1 medications require weekly injections.

Results from the Phase 3 trials are anticipated in 2027. Amgen plans to invest $2.6 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, partly to enhance manufacturing capacity in preparation for a possible MariTide launch.

Recently, Amgen traded near $340 as investors weighed whether six MariTide Phase 3 trials with monthly dosing and Repatha primary prevention data can offset $6 billion in denosumab erosion from 28% Prolia and 39% XGEVA declines driven by biosimilar launches and CVS formulary exclusions.

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