Natural gas price forecast: Qatar supply halt tests $3 floor as market searches for base

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Natural gas price outlook

Technical structure still under pressure

On the daily chart, natural gas remains under pressure due to obvious war and geopolitical catalysts. NG is trading near $2.97, and it continues to sit below the entire cluster of major moving averages. The 20-day EMA near $3.15 now marks the first hurdle for any recovery attempt. The 50-day EMA around $3.51 and the 100- and 200-day averages near $3.6 create a significant resistance area above the market.

Highlights

Natural gas holds near $3 as Qatar halts LNG output at Ras Laffan facilities.
Europe storage is projected to end winter near 22-27%, far below the 41% average.
Technical resistance sits between $3.15 and $3.6 across key EMAs.

Natural gas price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The commodity went up to around $7 in February. It did not last and went back down. This means that people buying and selling were the reason for the increase, not because there was actually a shortage of gas. After the price went up, it fell fast to below $4 and has been going down slowly to around $3.

The important thing to look at on the chart right now is the area between $2.85 and $2.9. This is where the price has been going up over time, starting from the point in late summer. Buyers have been coming in at this level a lot, which suggests that the market is trying to stop going down and start going up instead.

Qatar LNG halt removes major supply source

Supply risks have intensified following shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the suspension of liquefaction operations at Qatar's Ras Laffan facilities, a hub responsible for a large portion of global LNG exports. Even if disruptions prove temporary, shipping, and production delays might take time to stabilize.

Europe is currently facing challenges in rebuilding its storage capacity. Analysts estimate that the region will require around 700 LNG cargoes during the summer refill period, approximately 180 more than last year, to ensure sufficient reserves for winter. If buyers in Asia start competing for these shipments, it could lead to an increase in LNG prices globally.

Price forecast and market outlook

Analyst Anton Kharitonov observed, “The February spike to $7 proved traders were chasing shadows, not physical tightness. Now we have actual supply disruption with Qatar offline and Europe needing 36% more cargoes than last year just to refill storage. The difference is this time the fundamentals might actually justify higher prices. Watch $2.85 like a hawk. If that breaks, speculative longs capitulate and we test $2.50. But if Qatar stays offline into April and Asian buyers compete for European cargoes, $3.15 gets taken out fast and we're back testing $4.”

Natural gas is attempting to stabilize near $3 after Qatar suspended liquefaction operations at Ras Laffan facilities, while Europe faces storage deficits requiring 700 LNG cargoes for summer refill compared to 520 last year, with the $2.85-$2.9 support zone representing the critical floor where buyers have consistently defended.

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