Natural gas price forecast: Breakdown below $2.8 puts bears firmly in control

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Natural gas price forecast

Highlights

Natural gas trades near $2.78, staying below all major EMAs.
Key support sits at $2.75, with $2.5 next if selling accelerates.
RSI near 38 signals weak momentum without clear oversold relief.

The daily chart has reverted to a clean downtrend. Price remains firmly beneath the full EMA stack, reinforcing that rallies are still being treated as selling opportunities rather than trend reversals. The 20-day EMA at $3.27 has crossed below the 50-day near $3.62, while the 100-day and 200-day measures cluster higher around $3.62 to $3.71. That alignment keeps overhead supply heavy and defines the $3.2 to $3.6 zone as a layered resistance band.

NG price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The broader pattern also remains consistent with a full retracement of the winter spike. After a blow-off move above $7 earlier this year, natural gas reversed sharply and has since printed lower highs and lower lows. Recent recovery attempts stalled below the declining 20-day EMA, signaling that sellers are defending trend resistance, not just horizontal levels.

Support is now thin. Immediate focus is on $2.75. A daily close below that level would expose $2.5, with $2.4 as the next structural reference tied to last summer’s base. With limited chart structure between $2.75 and $2.5, the market is vulnerable to faster downside if stop-loss selling builds.

Flows and headlines fail to shift the trend

The trends in flows and headlines are not shifting. Momentum indicators are still weak, with the daily RSI hovering around 38 and continuing to decline, indicating that there is still room for downside before we see any technical exhaustion. A brief halt in CME Globex trading this week caused some short-term disruptions, but it didn't change the overall market structure. Once trading resumed, some orders were canceled, likely increasing near-term volatility, but the downtrend was already in place before this event occurred.

On a macro level, focus is shifting towards longer-term supply issues, particularly regarding reported commitments related to Russian LNG purchases that could influence European flows starting in 2027. Currently, U.S. futures are not anticipating a supply shock; instead, they are adjusting after the winter volatility, with the market still showing a bearish positioning.

As previously discussed, the post-January unwind has repeatedly punished early dip-buying, and the market has demanded clearer confirmation before rewarding long exposure. That remains the case here. A sustained reclaim of $3.3 would be an initial signal that downside momentum is easing. A move back above $3.6 would do more to challenge the bearish thesis. Until then, price action continues to favor selling strength over buying dips.

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