Gold: Central bank policy focus drives sideways action above key averages

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Gold rises 0.44% to $5,164.89 today

Highlights

Gold maintains strong demand as a safe-haven asset amid heightened geopolitical tensions, market risk aversion, and rising oil prices.
Long-term returns for gold remain robust, averaging approximately 9% annualized in US dollar terms since 1971.
Technically, gold shows upward momentum with high probability of gains, trading near $5,164 and an expected range of $5,160–$5,600 over the next five sessions.

Robust safe-haven flows as market risk and policy scrutiny intensify

Gold is demonstrating resilience amid ongoing demand for the US Dollar and heightened market risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices. The metal maintains its role as a safe-haven asset in periods of economic and political instability, attracting flows as investors closely monitor central bank policies and global events. Notably, the asset's long-term performance remains robust, with around 9% annualized returns in US dollar terms since 1971.

Divergent momentum signals with resistance at intraday highs

XAU is showing mixed technical signals. While MACD on the daily chart indicates persistent buying momentum, the ADX at 13.80 remains neutral, offering no confirmation of a strong trend. RSI stands modestly in favor of buyers, with CCI holding neutral and both Stoch RSI and BBP signaling oversold conditions, revealing a divergence between current intraday strength and oscillator-led momentum. Prices sit near the top of the current session's range, indicating moderate volatility, with $5,135.51 (Kijun) acting as immediate support.

Bullish consolidation likely as breakout and pullback risks emerge

In the short term, gold is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of $5,160–$5,600 over the next five sessions. There is a very high probability (over 80%) of further price gains, as confirmed by buy signals from W1 RSI, ADX, MACD, and the MA-50. The central scenario is for gold to consolidate sideways around support at $5,135, while a breakout above $5,200 could open the way toward $5,600. A drop below $5,160 could expose the market to deeper pullbacks toward key moving averages.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, views gold’s current strength as technically sound but mixed on momentum. He highlights robust long-term fundamentals but notes short-term signals are unclear, with only moderate support from oscillators and risk sentiment. Kharitonov remains defensive, seeing a base-case scenario for range-bound action with a close eye on $5,160 as a key level. "Until gold breaks decisively above $5,200, I maintain a neutral stance and avoid aggressive long exposure."

Previously it was reported that gold is experiencing short-term downward pressure, trading below its 20- and 50-period moving averages but remaining well above the 200-period average, with mixed momentum signals as MACD shows bullish bias while oscillators indicate weak trend strength and short-term bearish exhaustion. Immediate resistance is identified at $5,135 and key support near $5,090, suggesting a likely sideways consolidation with bullish probability contingent on a breakout above resistance levels.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.