FTC investigation intensifies — Microsoft stock drops 1.51%

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Microsoft slides 1.51% today to $403.23

Highlights

Microsoft's agreement with Codelco expands its AI presence in Chilean mining, raising exposure to regional geopolitical and regulatory risks.
The U.S. FTC's escalating investigation into Microsoft's cloud practices heightens antitrust risk and could impact enterprise revenue streams.
MSFT trades under bearish momentum with near-term support at $397 and resistance at $410, signaling a high probability of further downside.

Regulatory and geopolitical risks escalate on AI partnership and U.S. probe

On March 5, Microsoft and Codelco, Chile’s state-owned copper producer, signed a memorandum of understanding to evaluate joint initiatives involving artificial intelligence, automation, and digital security for mining operations in Chile. This expansion of Microsoft’s AI footprint in partnership with a major Latin American state entity increases the company’s exposure to regional geopolitical risks, including the potential for future regulatory intervention in the Chilean resources sector and heightened scrutiny on technology providers in critical industries. Additionally, in early 2026, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission has escalated its regulatory investigation into Microsoft’s cloud and software ecosystem, issuing civil investigative demands related to alleged practices that could impede enterprise customer migration to rival providers; this introduces the threat of antitrust enforcement and possible restrictions on Microsoft’s business operations in the U.S. Both developments increase the regulatory and geo-economic risk environment for the asset, with potential consequences for Microsoft’s future market access and enterprise revenue streams.

Bearish momentum dominates amid conflicting oscillator signals and overhead resistance

At the current price of $403.23, MSFT trades just above the SMA-20 ($401.56) but remains well below the SMA-50 ($436.20) and SMA-200 ($484.30), indicating short-term support yet medium- and long-term seller control. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $409.48, establishing immediate resistance just overhead. Momentum signals on D1 are bearish, with MACD showing strong sell and ADX registering selling pressure; RSI is neutral-to-weak at 47.65, and Stoch RSI flags overbought conditions. BBP is deeply overbought, signaling clear buyer dominance earlier in the trend, while CCI gives a buy reading and AO is neutral, generating conflicting oscillator signals. Today’s session opened with a slight gap down from the prior close ($409.41 to $407.74) and the price has slid 1.51%, currently trading near the intraday low, reflecting high volatility and persistent pressure after the open — short-term momentum aligns with the broader bearish tone despite some mixed signals in oscillators.

Downside favored as bearish momentum and narrow trading corridor persist

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $397 to $410. Probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making further decline more likely. In the baseline scenario, MSFT holds within the $397 to $410 corridor as near-term support and resistance. A bullish breakout above $410 could trigger short covering and push towards $415, while a bearish scenario unfolds if $397 is convincingly breached, potentially accelerating losses toward $390. The preponderance of bearish weekly and daily momentum indicators, including weak MA and RSI signals on W1, support a cautious outlook with sellers retaining control barring a reversal above immediate resistance.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Microsoft remains fundamentally strong despite recent price pressure and expanding regulatory challenges. He sees short-term momentum as bearish, but highlights the company's strategic alliances and robust market position as long-term positives. Regulatory risks from both Latin America and the US could limit upside in the near term. However, the expert maintains an optimistic outlook based on Microsoft's technological leadership and global reach. "As long as MSFT holds above key support at $397, I see limited downside and am watching closely for signs of renewed buyer interest."

Last time, analysts noted that Microsoft was trading above its short-term moving average but remained under medium- and long-term pressure, with momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX highlighting ongoing selling bias and RSI signaling cautious sentiment. Immediate support is identified near the $401 area, resistance near $412, and price action is expected to remain sideways with limited upside potential amid elevated volatility and risk factors including tariffs and cyber threats.

Source of Data: MSFT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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