+0.50% for US Dollar vs Yen as buyers target resistance near ¥160

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US Dollar vs yen up 0.50% today

Highlights

The US dollar is gaining versus the yen ahead of the Federal Reserve’s March 18 policy decision, with USD/JPY at levels unseen since 1990.
Market focus remains on the 158 yen support level, highlighted after recent short-term pullbacks in the pair.
USD/JPY trades near 159.85 with strong bullish momentum, expected to range between 158.00 and 160.00, as overbought signals persist.

Fed policy anticipation drives dollar strength, pressuring yen support

The US dollar is gaining strength against the Japanese yen ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming announcement on March 18, 2026. Market attention is concentrated on the Fed’s monetary policy decision, with the USD/JPY pair nearing levels not seen since 1990. Recent short-term pullbacks have highlighted the 158 yen level as key support for the US dollar relative to the yen.

Bullish signals persist as overbought risk and weak trend diverge

MACD shows ongoing bullish momentum, while ADX readings indicate a relatively weak trend. On the daily timeframe, RSI and CCI are both in buy territory but nearing overbought, and Stoch RSI is neutral, with lower readings compared to short-term intraday frames which show persistent overbought signals. BBP is high and overbought (0.89), highlighting that buyers are commanding intraday pressure; AO is neutral and does not reinforce the current trend. The pair has gained 0.50% today (up ¥0.80), with no opening gap, and the price is trading near today’s high in a range of ¥158.59 — ¥159.84. Intraday volatility has been moderate, and tone remains strong as buyers push the pair toward session highs, though some oscillators warn of a stretched market.

High probability of gains as range holds near resistance

Looking ahead, the expected price range over the next five sessions is likely to be ¥158.00 to ¥160.00. The probability of further price gains is very high (more than 80%), making a decline less likely. The baseline scenario favors range-bound trading within this band as momentum indicators remain broadly supportive. A bullish breakout could see a sustained move above ¥160.00 if buyers overcome resistance, while a reversal and break below ¥158.00 would expose the pair to a corrective pullback toward stronger moving average support levels.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent bullish momentum in USD/JPY but remains wary given the proximity to overbought levels and the historic highs. He notes that while technicals support further upside, several oscillators signal a stretched market. The critical 158 yen level underpins support as the market awaits the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. "Current strength favors the bulls, but I remain cautious — if ¥158.00 breaks, a deeper pullback is likely."

Previously it was reported that USD/JPY maintained a bullish bias as buyers controlled momentum across key timeframes. Current technical signals reinforce this view, but with short-term oscillators now indicating stretched conditions, traders should watch for signs of increased volatility or a potential breakout above ¥160 as the prevailing risk.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.