Central bank caution, inflation fears: US Dollar vs Polish Zloty trades higher

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US Dollar vs Polish Zloty up 0.55%

Highlights

Central banks held rates steady amid heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation risk, with oil price spikes fueling volatility.
The US dollar has strengthened as a safe haven as Polish inflation at 3.6% erodes local bank deposit value.
USD/PLN maintains a bullish trend above key supports, with 3.71–3.73 zł projected as the near-term trading range and upside favored.

Safe haven demand as central banks hold rates amid geopolitical risks

Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, have held their base interest rates this week amid concerns about the impact of the ongoing war in the Middle East on global inflation rates, with soaring oil and gas prices contributing to market volatility. In Poland, inflation in 2025 reached 3.6%, which was significantly higher than local bank deposit interest rates, leading to a loss of value for depositors' savings over the previous year. The US dollar has strengthened as a safe haven currency during this period of geopolitical escalation and inflation fears.

Sustained bullish structure as price holds above technical supports

Technically, USD/PLN maintains a bullish structure with current price action well above the MA-20, MA-50, and MA-200, and immediate support at the Ichimoku Kijun level (3.6585 zł). Momentum remains mixed: the D1 MACD shows strong buying, ADX (34.5) signals robust trend strength, while the RSI (53.9) and BBP (0.0424, "Buy") both point to day-session buyer strength. Stoch RSI shows oversold on D1 but lower timeframes are broadly overbought; CCI and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, reflecting divergence among oscillators. The pair opened just above the previous close with a moderate upward gap, and is currently trading near the session high in a moderately volatile session, reflecting sustained momentum.

Sideways bias persists as consolidation precedes potential breakout

In the near term, USD/PLN is expected to consolidate within a typical volatility band between 3.71 zł and 3.73 zł over the next five trading days. The base scenario favors sideways activity, though there is a high likelihood (over 80%) of a further move upward. A confirmed break above 3.73 zł could trigger additional upside, while a drop below 3.71 zł would point to a bearish shift; however, the bullish structure remains dominant as long as key supports hold.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees continued strength in USD/PLN as global macro risks push capital towards safer currencies. He notes the combination of hawkish sentiment from central banks and persistently high inflation in Poland reinforces support for the dollar. Technicals confirm a bullish structure, with key moving averages and momentum signals backing the trend. Consolidation between 3.71 zł and 3.73 zł seems likely, but the probability of further upside remains high. "With safe haven flows and macro fundamentals aligned, I expect USD/PLN to maintain its bullish trajectory unless support levels are clearly broken."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/PLN maintained a broadly bullish technical structure supported by persistent buying momentum. The current analysis strengthens this view, but with oscillators showing divergence and momentum mixed, traders should watch for a potential breakout above 3.73 zł as a signal for renewed upside.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.