Gold price steadies near $4,407 after deep selloff meets calmer oil trade

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Gold price steadies near $4,407

Highlights

Spot gold traded near $4,407 after falling sharply earlier in the session.
The Fed kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, leaving gold exposed to a still restrictive yield backdrop.
Brent crude swung violently, then pulled back after a temporary pause in strike fears.

Gold is no longer moving like a market with easy upside underneath it. Monday’s rebound from the intraday washout helped slow the damage, but the broader structure still looks bruised after a run of heavy selling that has pulled price far below the late-January peak.

The first zone in focus now sits around $4,400. Holding that area into the close would give traders a reason to argue the latest break is stabilizing, while a move back through the mid-$4,400s could open room toward $4,500, where the market would start testing whether sellers are finally losing control.

On the downside, the session low near $4,100 and the rebound line from around $4,400 create a very wide short-term band, which says more about stress than conviction. That usually leaves price vulnerable to another abrupt move if macro inputs turn hostile again.

Gold price dynamics (February-March 2026). Source: TradingView.

Why the safe haven bid has gone missing

The main pressure point remains the rates story. The Fed left its target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% on March 18, and the market has been adjusting to the idea that higher energy costs could keep policy restrictive for longer than many investors had expected earlier in the quarter.

Oil has been central to that repricing. Brent surged above $113 at one stage as the Strait of Hormuz crisis intensified, then swung sharply lower after a five-day pause was announced on planned strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure. Even after the drop, the market is still dealing with an energy shock large enough to keep inflation concerns alive.

The dollar and yields also shifted the tone. A weaker dollar later on Monday offered gold some breathing room, but that relief came only after a broad liquidation wave had already done serious damage. At the same time, the U.S. 10-year yield remained elevated after recently pushing into its highest area since mid-2025, a combination that has made bullion harder to hold despite the geopolitical backdrop.

What could come next from here

A steadier recovery would likely need two things to hold at once: oil would have to remain off its highs and Treasury yields would need to stop pressing upward. If that happens, gold could continue rebuilding from Monday’s low and work back toward $4,500, with a stronger test of the upper-$4,000s becoming more realistic if risk sentiment stays less defensive.

The less friendly scenario is that Monday’s bounce fades into another round of forced selling. A return of oil stress, another move higher in yields or a renewed rush into cash could drag gold back toward the low-$4,000s and keep the metal trading more like a liquidity source than a refuge.

Gold is still carrying long-term relevance as a hedge against inflation, fiscal strain and geopolitical fracture, but the immediate trade has become much less forgiving. For now, the metal is being judged less on fear itself and more on whether that fear feeds inflation and keeps real returns elsewhere attractive.

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