Turkey central bank gold sales support Gold price uptick

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Gold gains 0.94% to $4,727.69 today

Highlights

US universal 10% tariffs and heightened Middle East tensions have reshaped trade patterns, supporting gold and increasing price volatility.
Gold faces downward pressure from central bank sales to defend currencies and stronger dollar, after the Fed maintained rates at 3.50%-3.75%.
Technicals indicate a short- and long-term bullish structure, with prices projected between $4,585 and $4,847 amid high volatility and strong buyer activity.

Trade shifts and Fed pause bolster volatility amid central bank selling

The imposition of universal 10% tariffs by the US administration under Section 122 has directly impacted gold markets by altering global trade flows and supporting gold prices. The escalation of conflict in the Middle East—specifically the entry of Iran-backed Houthis and increased US military presence—has introduced prolonged geopolitical instability, resulting in volatility in gold prices. On March 31, persistent inflation concerns driven by energy price surges stemming from the Iran war and the resultant reassessment of future US Federal Reserve rate cuts led gold to its steepest monthly decline since 2008. Central banks, including Turkey's, have sold significant volumes of gold to defend currency values and secure hard-currency swap lines, exerting additional downward pressure on bullion. The rapid appreciation of the US dollar and higher Treasury yields following the Fed's decision to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75% have further increased the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Buyer strength meets resistance as mixed momentum tempers gains

Gold is trading above the SMA-20 ($4,657.42) and well above the SMA-200 ($4,423.40), but remains under the SMA-50 ($4,934.72), suggesting short-term and long-term bullish structure, with some medium-term resistance. The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $4,671.31, acting as immediate support, while no golden or death cross is present. On the D1 chart, momentum indicators are mixed: MACD signals strong selling, ADX points to fading trend strength, RSI and CCI are neutral-to-soft, while Stoch RSI and BBP indicate clear overbought conditions with buyer dominance. The price is testing the high end of today’s volatile range ($4,569.55 – $4,761.00) amid high volatility, with intraday action showing stronger buying appetite despite weak MACD and a neutral AO reading.

Upside scenario favored as volatility bands tighten near highs

Over the next five sessions, gold is expected to fluctuate between $4,585 and $4,847, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. With three out of four weekly trend signals pointing bullish, there is a high probability (75%) of further price increases, and additional declines appear less likely. The baseline scenario is sideways consolidation near recent highs. A breakout above $4,761 could target the weekly high, while failure to hold above immediate support at $4,671 or $4,585 would open up further downside, though this is less probable with prevailing momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, sees gold benefiting from macro and geopolitical drivers. He notes bullish structure on short- and long-term signals, with only minor resistance in the medium term. Central bank activity and US dollar strength may create temporary volatility, but the overall sentiment remains positive. He believes further upside is likely as global tensions and Fed policy support demand. "Gold's momentum is strong, and unless support at $4,671 is lost, dips look like buying opportunities for active traders."

Earlier, analysts noted that gold’s underlying bullish structure was supported by safe-haven demand and central bank activity, though the market faced volatility amid shifting macroeconomic risks. The current backdrop, reinforced by new geopolitical tensions and tariff policies, adds downside vulnerabilities to gold while sustaining upward momentum, making the next upside breakout above $4,761 a key trigger for potential trend acceleration.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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