Tilray stock price forecast: $6.50–$7.00 range as TLRY rises 4.50%

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Tilray up 4.50% today at $6.85

Highlights

Tilray delivered 11% organic revenue growth to $206.7 million in Q3, driven by high-alcohol beverage expansion and medical cannabis initiatives.
Net loss narrowed to $25.2 million following cost-cutting measures and the launch of new Shock Top products ahead of potential U.S. regulatory changes.
Shares are consolidating between $6.50 and $7.00 with bearish momentum prevailing, as technical indicators point to limited upside and risk of further declines.

Organic growth and U.S. expansion support optimism despite persistent losses

Tilray reported net revenue of $206.7 million for the third fiscal quarter ending February 28, 2026, reflecting 11% organic growth driven by its expansion into high-alcohol beverages and preparations for entry into the U.S. medical cannabis market. The company reduced its net loss to $25.2 million through cost-saving initiatives and launched 'High Voltage,' a new product under its Shock Top brand. Additionally, Tilray has set up Tilray Medical USA to position itself for potential regulatory changes regarding the reclassification of cannabis.

Divergence signals as bullish price action meets waning momentum

The current price of $6.85 is trading above the MA-20 ($6.72) but remains below both the MA-50 ($7.35) and MA-200 ($9.58). This setup suggests short-term bullish momentum, while medium- and long-term trends continue to face downward pressure from sellers. The Ichimoku Kijun at $6.98 stands above current levels and serves as immediate resistance. Momentum signals are conflicted: MACD shows strong selling, and ADX on D1 is neutral, but Stoch RSI is clearly overbought and RSI sits below 50, indicating soft underlying strength with risk of pullback. CCI and AO both lean bearish, while BBP signals an oversold reading, reflecting that seller dominance could be waning on the daily time frame. Today saw a mild gap up at the open, with price now near the upper end of today’s range on moderate volatility, reflecting persistent strength toward the highs after the open. Such daily price action does not fully align with D1 momentum, as oscillators point to exhaustion while price action remains positive, highlighting a notable divergence.

Downside risk persists as buy signals fail and breakout awaits

For the next five trading days, the expected price range is $6.50 to $7.00. The probability of price increases is very low (less than 20%), making a further decline more likely given the lack of buy signals across weekly indicators (all major trend indicators such as MA-50-w1, RSI-w1, and MACD-w1 remain bearish). The volatility band relative to current levels is driven by daily and weekly momentum signals offsetting each other, suggesting consolidation within this corridor. A breakout above $7.00 would require renewed buying and a close above immediate resistance at the Kijun, while a break of $6.50 support could see sellers retest recent lows.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Tilray’s recent revenue growth and strategic expansion as strong drivers for medium-term sentiment. Despite steady cost reduction and new product launches, he acknowledges that technicals remain weak, with price action likely to stay capped under $7.00 in the near term. Macro and regulatory catalysts could reshape the trend, but for now, the base case remains consolidation. He believes the bearish momentum is losing strength but not fully reversed. "If Tilray can hold above $6.50 and spark renewed buying, I expect stronger upside potential as fundamentals keep improving."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tilray continued to face persistent bearish technical pressure despite operational progress and portfolio diversification. The current setup reinforces this outlook, with underlying momentum signals remaining weak and consolidation likely, making a close watch on the $7.00 resistance critical for any potential shift in trend.

Source of Data: TLRY Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.