EUR/USD continues to trade inside a well-defined consolidation range, with the pair holding near 1.1420 after once again failing to sustain a breakout above the 1.1470 resistance area visible on the chart. Price action remains trapped between approximately 1.1390 and 1.1470, while the short and medium-term moving averages continue to flatten, highlighting the absence of a strong directional trend.
The longer-term moving average is also stabilizing, reinforcing the view that the market is waiting for a fresh macro catalyst before committing to a larger move.
Central banks remain the primary driver
The macro backdrop remains mixed. Market participants continue to balance expectations for the European Central Bank against the outlook for the Federal Reserve. While investors largely expect the ECB to leave rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, policymakers are expected to preserve a hawkish tone and keep the door open for another move later this year if inflation risks intensify. At the same time, recent U.S. inflation data have moderated, but resilient economic activity and rising Treasury yields continue to support the U.S. dollar, reducing the likelihood of aggressive Fed easing in the near term. This combination has kept EUR/USD confined to a relatively narrow range.
Middle East conflict keeps volatility elevated
Geopolitical developments remain an important source of uncertainty for currency markets. Escalating tensions involving Iran and the broader Middle East have pushed oil prices higher, increasing concerns about renewed inflationary pressures and supporting demand for traditional safe-haven assets, including the U.S. dollar and Treasuries. Higher energy prices also complicate the policy outlook for the ECB because they could slow the decline in eurozone inflation while simultaneously weighing on economic growth.
Technical outlook favors patience
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to respect the established consolidation channel. Initial support remains around 1.1390, while the key resistance zone is located near 1.1470. Only a confident break above resistance would improve the near-term outlook and increase the probability of another advance toward 1.1500 and 1.1540. Conversely, a sustained move below 1.1390 would strengthen bearish momentum and expose the pair to a deeper pullback toward the 1.1350 region. Until either boundary gives way, as I warned in EUR/USD holds above key support as geopolitical risks and central bank outlook keep traders cautious, range trading is likely to remain the dominant scenario.
-
Afghanistan
-
Albania
-
Algeria
-
Angola
-
Argentina
-
Armenia
-
Australia
-
Austria
-
Azerbaijan
-
Bahamas
-
Bahrain
-
Bangladesh
-
Belarus
-
Belgium
-
Bolivia
-
Botswana
-
Brazil
-
Brunei
-
Bulgaria
-
Cambodia
-
Cameroon
-
Canada
-
Chile
-
China
-
Colombia
-
Congo
-
Costa Rica
-
Cote d'Ivoire
-
Croatia
-
Cuba
-
Cyprus
-
Czechia
-
DR Congo
-
Denmark
-
Dominican Republic
-
Ecuador
-
Egypt
-
El Salvador
-
Estonia
-
Eswatini
-
Ethiopia
-
Finland
-
France
-
Georgia
-
Germany
-
Ghana
-
Greece
-
Haiti
-
Hong Kong
-
Hungary
-
India
-
Indonesia
-
Iran, Islamic republic
-
Iraq
-
Ireland
-
Israel
-
Italy
-
Jamaica
-
Japan
-
Jordan
-
Kazakhstan
-
Kenya
-
Korea
-
Kuwait
-
Kyrgyzstan
-
Laos
-
Latvia
-
Lebanon
-
Lesotho
-
Libya
-
Lithuania
-
Luxembourg
-
Madagascar
-
Malaysia
-
Malta
-
Mauritius
-
Mexico
-
Moldova
-
Mongolia
-
Montenegro
-
Morocco
-
Mozambique
-
Myanmar
-
Namibia
-
Nepal
-
Netherlands
-
New Zealand
-
Nigeria
-
North Macedonia
-
Norway
-
Oman
-
Pakistan
-
Palestine
-
Panama
-
Papua New Guinea
-
Paraguay
-
Peru
-
Philippines
-
Poland
-
Portugal
-
Puerto Rico
-
Qatar
-
Reunion
-
Romania
-
Rwanda
-
Saudi Arabia
-
Serbia
-
Singapore
-
Slovakia
-
Slovenia
-
Somalia
-
South Africa
-
Spain
-
Sri Lanka
-
Sweden
-
Switzerland
-
Syria
-
Taiwan
-
Tajikistan
-
Tanzania
-
Thailand
-
Trinidad and Tobago
-
Tunisia
-
Turkey
-
UAE
-
Uganda
-
Ukraine
-
United Kingdom
-
United States
-
Uruguay
-
Uzbekistan
-
Venezuela
-
Vietnam
-
Yemen
-
Zambia
-
Zimbabwe
- Forex
- Crypto
