US Dollar vs Polish Zloty price forecast: 3.62 zł–3.69 zł range as USD/PLN falls 1.14%

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US dollar vs zloty slides 1.14% today

Highlights

Gold and silver prices in India declined as profit-taking and a firmer US dollar pressured precious metals early in the session.
Crude oil remains elevated amid escalating geopolitical risks, notably following threats by Donald Trump directed at Iran.
USD/PLN continues to face bearish short-term momentum, with technical signals suggesting a likely range-bound move between 3.62 zł and 3.69 zł, barring a decisive breakout.

Cross-asset volatility as profit taking and geopolitics shift sentiment

According to a news article published on April 7, 2026, the price of gold and silver in India slipped in early deals, influenced by profit booking and a stronger US dollar. The article also reported that crude oil prices remained elevated due to heightened geopolitical tension stemming from threats made by Donald Trump towards Iran. These developments have contributed to movements in global commodity and currency markets.

Mixed momentum as technical barriers stall potential bounce

Technically, USD/PLN remains under pressure below both the MA-20 and MA-50, while finding support just above the MA-200 at 3.6317 zł. The Ichimoku Kijun at 3.7015 zł acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators present a mixed picture: MACD on D1 signals strong buying, but this is offset by a downward-trending ADX and an RSI at 39.6, indicating sell territory. CCI and Stoch RSI reflect oversold conditions, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce, while BBP shows marginal buyer dominance. However, the Awesome Oscillator confirms seller momentum, and price action has been dominated by downside movement since the open. Intraday volatility has remained moderate with continued downward pressure.

Further declines likely as upside scenarios face strong resistance

Over the next five trading days, the expected volatility band is between 3.62 zł and 3.69 zł. With only RSI on the weekly timeframe showing a 'Buy' signal and the majority of indicators remaining in 'Sell' or 'Neutral', the probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), increasing the likelihood of further declines. The baseline scenario favors sideways movement within this range. A bullish reversal would require a break above 3.70 zł, while a drop below 3.62 zł would open the door to additional downside pressure against longer-term support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Trading Expert at Traders Union, believes the USD/PLN pair is driven by both short-term technical weakness and global macro sentiment. He notes that recent news of elevated oil prices and a stronger US dollar are fueling volatility, while most indicators still favor sellers. Analyst sees support just above the MA-200 as a key level, but expects sideways movement unless 3.70 zł is breached. Macro and sentiment headwinds remain, but oversold signals suggest a bounce is possible if momentum shifts. "A breakout above 3.70 zł could spark a bullish reversal, but for now, traders should watch for stability above 3.62 zł as the main pivot for the coming days."

Earlier, analysts noted that despite mixed momentum signals, USD/PLN was consolidating within a structure supportive of potential bullish continuation over the medium term. The latest developments indicate this outlook has weakened, and traders should monitor for a sustained break below 3.62 zł as a trigger for further declines.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.