Strikes on UAE infrastructure (including Fujairah), tanker attacks, and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz (through which ~20% of global oil flows) triggered a sharp surge: WTI trades ~$100–107.5 with a pullback. Tanker traffic is declining, insurance costs are soaring, creating a real supply shock of up to 9+ million barrels/day; UAE officially exited OPEC on May 1, undermining cartel discipline and adding volatility—UAE promises gradual production increases.
The current WTI pullback to $103 stems from profit-taking and de-escalation hopes, but the market remains overheated by geopolitical premium—traders are pricing in $110–120 baseline, up to $150 if tensions worsen. Paradox: global inventories are ample, but logistics/refining can't cope with fuel shortages (jet fuel, LPG); U.S. maintains high production (record 13.6M b/d in 2025) and exports, while OPEC+ ramps output (+206 kb/d in April).
Key levels—support $103–100, resistance $107–107.5 (breakout → $115); market in "high-risk premium" zone without a sustained trend.
Bottom line: oil is now a geopolitical derivative—progress in talks triggers a drop, new attacks spark a spike. Base case: wide range focused on headlines.
As noted in U.S. crude remains in geopolitical-crisis mode, Middle East tensions continue dictating oil market trading, with little change expected short-term.
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