CME Group farmer sentiment index falls in April on rising input cost pressure

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
CME farmer sentiment falls April

Highlights

The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer drops to 121 in April from 127 in March, with current condition sentiment down 11 points.
The Farm Capital Investment Index declines by 9 points to 44, the lowest since October 2024, amid rising input costs and fertilizer market uncertainty.
About two-thirds of surveyed producers expect farm net income to decline in 2026, and farmland value expectations weaken due to concerns over alternative investments, interest rates, and inflation.

April survey points to weaker confidence

As reported by CME Group, the April Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer falls to 121 from 127 in March, based on responses from 400 farmers surveyed nationwide from April 13-17. Confidence in current conditions drops by 11 points, while producers' expectations for the future fall by 4 points from March and stand 28 points below the level recorded in April last year.

Only 15% of producers say financial conditions improve from the same period a year earlier. Looking ahead, 28% of respondents expect worse financial performance over the next year, compared with 25% who expect better results.

The Farm Capital Investment Index declines by 9 points to 44, its lowest reading since October 2024, signaling weaker willingness to make large investments. In comments released with the survey, Michael Langemeier, principal investigator for the barometer and director of Purdue's Center for Commercial Agriculture, says producers remain under pressure from high input costs and are showing somewhat greater concern about fertilizer availability as turmoil in fertilizer and energy markets adds uncertainty.

Income outlook and land values soften

April's survey also examines how current events are affecting farm income and corn break-even prices in 2026. About two-thirds of respondents expect their farm's net income to decline in 2026, and among producers who planted corn in 2025, roughly half expect corn break-even prices to rise by up to 6% in 2026, while 14% see increases of 6% to 9% and 37% anticipate gains of 10% or more.

The survey's strategic risk questions show 58% of respondents agree that their operations have lower per-unit fixed costs than their most efficient peers, including 9% who strongly agree. At the same time, farmland value expectations weaken, with the short-term index slipping to 121 from 125 and the long-term index easing to 155 from 159, as producers cite alternative investments, interest rates and inflation as the main drivers of land values.

Optimism about the direction of the U.S. economy also recedes. The share of producers who say the country is moving in the right direction falls to 57% from 65% in March, underscoring a broader pullback in confidence across the farm sector.

USDA’s 10-year agricultural baseline projections outline a long-run scenario for the U.S. farm sector and global agricultural trade, covering commodity markets, trade flows, and key indicators such as farm income. In our earlier article, we noted how the baseline framework and related data products are used as planning tools to track major market drivers, price trends, and structural forces affecting producers over the decade ahead.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.