Nvidia stock price forecast: $210 support level in focus as NVDA trades flat

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Nvidia drops 0.11% to $224.85 today

Highlights

Nvidia's China business has effectively halted due to escalating US export controls, erasing market share and pressuring regional revenue.
Surging global demand for Rubin AI platform memory and AI server expansion is straining supply chains and heightening production risk.
NVDA maintains a bullish technical structure with a high probability of trading between $215 and $235 over the next five days, though overbought signals and short-term exhaustion warrant caution.

China revenue loss and export curbs offset by strong AI-driven demand

Nvidia's business in China has effectively ceased, as ongoing geopolitical and export control pressures have eliminated the company's market share in this critical region. US-imposed restrictions have further constrained Nvidia's ability to supply AI chips to Chinese customers, directly impacting revenue from the area. Meanwhile, elevated global demand for LPDDR memory linked to the Rubin AI platform and expanded AI server rollout has increased supply chain competition and heightened production risks, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Momentum divergence as overbought signals clash with uptrend support

On the technical front, NVDA is trading above its SMA-20 at $210.27, SMA-50 at $193.06, and SMA-200 at $185.97. The Ichimoku Kijun level stands at $210.63 and acts as immediate support below current levels. Daily momentum indicators are mostly positive, as reflected in the MACD and ADX. However, oscillators such as the RSI at 64.45 and CCI at 131.51 are in overbought territory, with the Stoch RSI generating a strong sell signal, suggesting short-term exhaustion and divergence with broader momentum. BBP highlights strong buyer dominance during the session, while the Awesome Oscillator aligns with the ongoing upward trend. The price action saw a minor gap up at the open, but NVDA has drifted toward the lower end of today's range amid moderate intraday volatility.

High odds for gains as consolidation follows broad bullish signals

Over the next five sessions, NVDA is expected to trade within a $215 to $235 range based on typical volatility for blue-chip stocks. With prevailing trend signals and ongoing momentum, the probability of an upward move is assessed at above 80%, while downside risk remains low. Consolidation between immediate support ($215–$210) and resistance levels is anticipated as the baseline scenario. An upward breakout above $235 would confirm renewed strength, while a sustained drop below the $215–$210 area would mark a bearish scenario, though this is currently less likely given supportive momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Nvidia's technical momentum remains intact above key moving averages, but fundamental headwinds are building. He sees the loss of the China market and intensifying supply chain stress as significant risks to growth and revenue stability. Price action suggests short-term exhaustion despite the prevailing uptrend. "I remain cautious here — the loss of a major market like China raises medium-term downside risks even if technicals look supportive for now."

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s technical momentum remained strong despite mounting regulatory uncertainty and overbought conditions tied to its exposure in China. The current retracement amid a decisive loss of Chinese market access and persistent supply chain risks adds a new layer to the outlook, positioning a confirmed breakout above $235 as a key trigger for further upside.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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