Nvidia stock trades lower after Beijing summit fails to aid U.S. chipmakers

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Nvidia drops 2.92% on trade risk

Highlights

Unresolved U.S.-China negotiations have heightened uncertainty over Nvidia's market access and export permissions in China.
Chinese firms are ramping up domestic chip development, directly threatening Nvidia’s dominant position in the region.
NVDA remains in a strong uptrend with a projected trading corridor of $223.00 to $232.00, though overbought signals caution against chasing upside momentum.

Unresolved US-China talks and chip export scrutiny heighten Nvidia risk

Inconclusive negotiations between U.S. and Chinese leadership on May 15 left critical issues over trade and technology policy unresolved, perpetuating uncertainty around Nvidia's access to the Chinese market. The recent Trump-Xi summit in Beijing failed to deliver clear support for American chipmakers, while Chinese firms intensified efforts to transition to domestic solutions, posing direct challenges to Nvidia’s market share. Additionally, U.S. authorities' approval for Nvidia to supply H200 chips to major Chinese companies has prompted scrutiny and regulatory concerns regarding the reliability of ongoing export access, increasing perceived business risk for the firm.

Bullish momentum contrasts with persistent overbought technical signals

NVDA has surpassed several key technical thresholds, trading above the SMA-20 level at $209.04, SMA-50 at $192.21, and SMA-200 at $185.73. The Ichimoku Kijun at $208.56 provides immediate technical support. Momentum metrics on the daily chart, such as MACD and ADX, show a continuation of bullish momentum, while oscillators including RSI at 76.39, CCI at 206.90, and Stoch RSI at 100 highlight strong overbought conditions that point to the possibility of short-term exhaustion. BBP at 21.91 underscores prevailing buyer dominance, supported by intraday alignment on the Awesome Oscillator. Despite a gap lower at the open, NVDA has stabilized near the midpoint of today’s $224.84–$228.46 range amid moderate volatility. Divergence between persistent trend momentum and multiple overbought oscillator readings signals a need for caution as the two do not fully align.

Short-term upside favored but hinged on volatility thresholds

Looking ahead to the next five trading sessions, NVDA is expected to remain within a volatility band of $223.00 to $232.00. The probability of an upside move is high, with price action likely to stabilize in a sideways pattern within this corridor. A break above $232.00 would likely renew buying momentum, while a move below $223.00 could trigger a bearish shift and expose the stock to further downside correction. The short-term risk/reward remains skewed to the upside but is tempered by near-term overbought signals.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent headwinds for Nvidia. The analyst notes that unresolved U.S.-China trade and technology disputes and increased regulatory scrutiny keep business risk elevated. While technicals remain bullish, overbought signals and lack of diplomatic progress warrant caution. "Until access to the Chinese market is secured and overbought conditions normalize, I remain defensive on NVDA despite strong momentum," he says.

Earlier, analysts noted that Nvidia’s sustained strength was underpinned by resilient technical momentum, but tempered by volatility linked to regulatory and geopolitical risks around Chinese market access. The latest developments extend this narrative, highlighting that elevated overbought signals and evolving trade policy uncertainties demand vigilance, with NVDA’s near-term outlook hinging on a decisive move outside the $223–$232 volatility band.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.