-1.10% for Gold as Indian gold smuggling rises after import duty hikes

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Gold drops 1.10% to $4,521.00 today

Highlights

Forced sovereign gold sales and Russia's reserve depletion following the Strait of Hormuz shock have increased global gold supply and altered reserve structures.
Growing gold smuggling in India and US-Iran geopolitical tension have heightened regulatory risks and sustained physical flow uncertainty in the gold market.
Gold faces persistent bearish technical signals, with high probability of further declines and a projected trading range of $4,300–$4,750 over the next week.

Gold supply surges as sovereign sales and tensions reshape flows

Forced sovereign gold sales by countries under acute liquidity stress following the Strait of Hormuz energy shock have added to global gold market supply, contributing to changes in reserve holdings and market structure. Russia's accelerated gold reserve depletion, driven by escalating war expenditures and ongoing sanctions, has further reduced central bank inventories and increased available supply into the market. Meanwhile, intensified gold smuggling activity in India and persistent geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have generated additional regulatory risk and sustained uncertainty in physical gold flows, shaping the broader context for gold trading.

Downside momentum accelerates with major resistance and sell signals

Gold is currently positioned below the MA-20 at $4,604.24, the MA-50 at $4,671.30, and the MA-200 at $4,611.10, while the D1 Ichimoku Kijun stands at $4,613.82 and acts as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators show prevailing weakness: the D1 MACD and ADX both signal a sell, with the D1 RSI at 46.02, indicating loss of bullish momentum. Stoch RSI and CCI are neutral but suggest an oversold tendency on lower timeframes. BBP points to intraday seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral.

Decisive sell bias persists amid high volatility and limited support

Over the next five trading days, the expected price range for gold falls within $4,300 to $4,750, consistent with a ±5% volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of continued decline is high, reflecting the dominance of sell signals on the daily timeframe and only marginal support from weekly indicators. A consolidation scenario would see gold trade sideways in this corridor, while a close above $4,614 would be necessary to open upside toward $4,750. A break below $4,300 would likely prompt additional retracement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees fundamental and technical weaknesses continuing to weigh on gold. He notes that forced sovereign sales and Russia’s reserve depletion are pushing additional supply into a market already pressured below key moving averages. Sell signals remain dominant on the daily chart, with only limited support from higher timeframes. "Unless gold reclaims $4,614, I expect further pressure and limited upside in the near term."

Earlier, analysts noted that continued downside momentum in gold reflected waning safe-haven demand amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. The current environment strengthens this view, as rising supply from forced sovereign sales and persistent regulatory risk amplify bearish pressures, making a decisive move below $4,300 an important downside risk to monitor.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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