Costco stock slides as shares test support near $999 with mixed technical signals: weekly outlook

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Costco slips 2.26% this week

Highlights

Costco trades near key support at $1,003.54 after a 2.26% weekly decline, signaling a consolidation phase.
Technical indicators present mixed momentum, with MACD and RSI bullish but oscillators showing oversold levels and neutral trend strength.
Forecast for the next week shows a likely sideways range between $1,000.80 and $1,017.44, with balanced upside and downside risk.

Earnings outlook and membership gains drive sentiment despite legal risk

Costco is set to release its fiscal Q3 2026 earnings after the market closes on May 28, 2026, with analysts expecting earnings per share of $4.98 and revenue near $69.61 billion. Recent performance has been supported by strong membership growth, notable increases in membership fee income, and robust comparable sales. Secondary developments include a slight reduction in institutional holdings and the filing of a new lawsuit over California’s auto-renewal law.

Technical divergence grows as price hovers near weekly support

On the weekly chart, Costco is hovering just above the MA-20 and MA-50, with long-term support maintained above the MA-200. Support is established at $999.46 (MA-20) and $959.45 (MA-50), while resistance is seen around $1,017.44. Weekly volatility registered at 6.88%. Momentum signals are mixed: the MACD and RSI lean bullish, but the ADX is neutral, and the Stochastic RSI signals oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power suggests buyers remain engaged, while the Awesome Oscillator presents a neutral view, pointing to a divergent technical landscape and a potential inflection point as price holds near support.

Sideways bias expected amid balanced signals and breakout risk next week

Over the next five trading days, Costco is expected to trade between $1,000.80 and $1,017.44, averaging near $1,009.12. With 2 out of 4 major weekly indicators signaling Buy or Strong Buy, there is about a 50% chance of upward or downward movement. The baseline scenario envisions sideways consolidation, confined within current support and resistance. An upward breakout could see the price test levels above $1,017.44, while a drop below $1,000.80 could trigger a retest of deeper support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, believes Costco’s robust fundamentals and recent momentum justify a confident outlook for the coming week. While the price dipped 2.26% this week, it remains firmly above its key weekly moving averages — a sign of continued structural strength. Karapetjanc sees stable membership growth and strong fee income as critical drivers supporting bullish sentiment. Technical signals are mixed, but buyers remain active near crucial support, presenting an opportunity should earnings surprise to the upside. "As long as Costco holds above $999.46, I expect consolidation to lead to fresh attempts at higher resistance this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Costco shares faced short-term uncertainty within a broadly constructive long-term trend, with market participants awaiting new catalysts around upcoming earnings. With momentum signals remaining mixed and the stock at a technical inflection point, traders should watch for a decisive move above $1,017.44 or below $1,000.80 to signal the next directional breakout.

Source of Data: COST Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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