China oil imports may fall to pandemic-era lows

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
China oil imports may fall

Highlights

Chinese oil imports may fall to 10.9 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 2022.
In 2025, imports averaged about 11.6 million barrels a day, but part of that volume went into stockpiles.
The war around Iran has shown that China is not rushing to sharply increase purchases even amid supply risks.
A weaker economy, electric vehicles and lower refinery activity are weighing on demand.

Imports fall toward pandemic-era levels

According to Bloomberg, London-based consultancy Energy Aspects Ltd. forecasts that China may import an average of 10.9 million barrels of crude oil a day this year. That would be the lowest level since 2022, when the country’s economy was hit by COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions.

By comparison, China’s daily imports averaged about 11.6 million barrels in 2025. But that figure was partly inflated by stockpiling, as authorities moved to strengthen energy security amid geopolitical instability and risks to supply.

The picture now looks different. The war in Iran has disrupted familiar supply routes and pushed prices higher, but China has not increased purchases in the way the market might have expected from the world’s largest importer. That points not only to buyer caution, but also to deeper changes in the economy.

Weak demand, not just a temporary pause

China was long the main driver of growth in global oil consumption. Rapid industrialization, construction, export manufacturing and an expanding car fleet supported demand for years. But some of those forces have now weakened.

The economy is growing more slowly, domestic consumption remains uneven, the property sector is no longer pulling commodity markets with the same force, and electric vehicles are replacing gasoline-powered cars at a faster pace. Refineries are also facing weaker margins, especially when crude becomes more expensive because of military risks.

In that sense, the Iran conflict has become less a cause than a test. It has shown that even a sharp disruption to Middle East supplies does not necessarily trigger the kind of surge in Chinese buying that markets once expected. If demand does not recover after the market normalizes, the oil balance could shift for a long time.

A new benchmark for the oil market

For traders, the main question now is whether the decline in imports is a temporary response to high prices or the start of a more lasting trend. The difference is crucial. If China is indeed moving past peak oil demand, producers will have to rethink expectations for long-term growth.

The numbers are already significant: Energy Aspects’ forecast of 10.9 million barrels a day implies a decline of roughly 700,000 barrels compared with the average level in 2025. In a market where even small changes in demand can move prices, that is a substantial volume.

The war with Iran is still supporting oil prices through fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. But weaker Chinese imports are working in the opposite direction. That is what makes the market especially unstable: geopolitics is pushing prices higher, while demand from China is limiting the increase.

As previously covered, Iran war accelerates Kazakhstan rail project between China and Europe.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.