Hormuz deal awaits Trump decision as oil falls

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Hormuz deal awaits Trump decision

Highlights

The preliminary plan would extend the ceasefire by 60 days and open talks on Iran’s nuclear program.
The deal is expected to allow unrestricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and include a phased easing of the blockade, along with discussions on sanctions relief.
Oil prices fell on expectations of de-escalation: WTI slipped to $87.99, while Brent dropped to $92.96.
There is still no final agreement: Trump has not approved the deal, and Iranian state media say the text has not been finalized.

Deal awaits Trump’s decision

According to Reuters, the United States and Iran are discussing a 60-day memorandum that would extend the ceasefire and give both sides time to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear program. Axios reported that the document had already been sent to Trump, but the U.S. president did not sign it immediately and took time to consider it. The draft also refers to free passage for vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, mine removal within 30 days, a phased easing of the blockade, and discussions on sanctions and frozen assets.

Iran’s public position is more cautious. Tasnim, citing a source close to the negotiating team, reported that the text of the possible memorandum had not yet been confirmed. U.S. Vice President JD Vance also said Washington was “not there yet,” though the sides were close to an agreement.

Oil market focuses on Hormuz

Reports of a possible deal quickly affected prices. In the market data shown, WTI fell to $87.99 a barrel, down 1.02%, while Brent dropped to $92.96, down 0.80%. Prices turned lower after news of a possible agreement.

Earlier, Bloomberg reported that Brent had fallen by more than 5% amid positive signals from Washington about progress in talks over Hormuz. Brent was moving toward $92 a barrel by Friday and was on track for a sharp monthly decline after reports of a 60-day ceasefire extension.

Energy risk remains high

The IEA gives a similar assessment of the strait’s importance: about 20 million barrels per day and roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade move through this route, while alternative pipeline capacity is limited to 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day.

That is why even an unsigned deal can move prices. If the agreement is approved, the market may see a lower geopolitical risk premium. If not, a new round of strikes could quickly bring volatility back.

We also reported oil prices fall amid possible U.S.-Iran ceasefire.

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