Gold consolidates as higher India import duties curb demand

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Gold rises 0.96% to $4,527.55 today

Highlights

Gold demand in India remains weak due to elevated local prices and import duties, limiting physical buying activity.
Chinese gold market sees cautious buying, leading to reduced local premiums and softer demand from another key consumer.
Gold trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum indicators, likely to remain range-bound between $4,375 and $4,575 barring a decisive breakout.

Physical demand curbed as high prices slow India, China buying

Gold demand in India has remained subdued as higher domestic prices and import duties limit physical buying, directly dampening demand from one of the world's largest consumers. Meanwhile, persistent caution among Chinese buyers has led to a narrowing of local premiums, suggesting reticence among another key demand center. These factors combine to moderate physical market activity, though the current session is seeing renewed interest despite these headwinds.

Bearish momentum holds below resistance as trend strength weakens

On the technical front, XAU is trading below the SMA-20 ($4,566.90), SMA-50 ($4,648.69), and SMA-200 ($4,626.57) levels, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $4,570.34 currently acting as immediate resistance. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) continues to confirm seller dominance, while the D1 MACD indicates strong bearish momentum. However, the ADX is weak at 20.84, highlighting a lack of trend strength, and the AO remains neutral, not reinforcing the broader momentum. The RSI stands at 42.09 and the CCI at –77.98, both in sell territory but not deeply oversold, while the Stoch RSI shows a strong sell reading; XAU is trading near the top of today’s $4,498.63–$4,540.09 intraday range.

Sideways trajectory expected unless resistance is decisively broken

Looking ahead, the next week is expected to see XAU fluctuate within a typical volatility band of $4,375–$4,575. Upside scenarios appear unlikely, with less than a 20% chance of a sustained advance unless the price conclusively surpasses the $4,570 resistance. The more probable path is continued sideways trading within this corridor, while a drop below $4,375 would likely accelerate the decline as key support fails.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that gold is showing renewed interest despite subdued physical demand in India and cautious sentiment in China. He sees current price action capped by resistance near $4,570, with medium-term momentum still biased to the downside. However, macro and sentiment factors suggest buyers could return if headwinds ease. Karapetjanc remains confident that any sustained move depends on a clear break above resistance. "Momentum is developing, but I want to see a decisive move above $4,570 before turning more bullish on gold."

Earlier, analysts noted that prevailing bearish sentiment and cautious positioning were likely to cap gold’s upside and keep price action constrained. The current backdrop of subdued physical demand from India and China reinforces this narrative, suggesting traders should monitor for downside acceleration if key support below $4,375 is breached.

Source of Data: XAU Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.