Goldman Sachs warns high oil prices may shift consumer spending in 2026

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Dan Blystone

02.06.2026

Goldman Sachs warns high oil prices may shift consumer spending in 2026 — Oil prices may shift spending

Rising energy costs and persistent inflation expectations are shaping Wall Street's outlook for the U.S. economy into the second half of 2026. Goldman Sachs Chief Executive David Solomon says higher oil prices could alter consumer behavior if inflation strengthens further.

Highlights

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warns consumers are likely to shift spending patterns in H2 2026 if inflation accelerates due to high oil prices.
U.S. inflation rose in April at its fastest pace in three years, driven by energy prices linked to the Iran war, reinforcing expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged well into 2025.
SpaceX targets a $1.75 trillion IPO, with SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic potentially adding almost $4 trillion in market capitalization to public markets and intensifying competition for investor funds.

Inflation outlook and market signals

As reported by Reuters, Solomon says at an Economic Club of New York event that consumers are likely to change spending patterns in the second half of 2026 if inflation accelerates on the back of higher oil prices.

He says economic data over the next six months could shift sentiment, although he adds that such a change is not yet visible. U.S. inflation rises in April at its fastest pace in three years, driven by higher energy prices linked to the Iran war, reinforcing economists' expectations that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged well into next year.

Solomon also says he has enormous confidence in the Federal Reserve, its governors and new chair Kevin Warsh.

IPO pipeline and broader business climate

On expected mega IPOs, Solomon says capital markets currently have enough money to absorb the projected deal flow. He adds that history shows market exuberance can last for long periods, describing the current environment as one with more greed than fear and saying it creates major opportunities to invest in new technologies.

His comments come as SpaceX is planning an initial public offering targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion, according to two people familiar with the matter cited by Reuters. The listing is expected to help trigger a wave of large offerings, with SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic together potentially adding almost $4 trillion in market capitalization to public markets and increasing competition for investor funds.

Solomon also says his recent meeting with New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani is productive. He says he hopes the mayor, as he moves from campaigning to governing, will communicate support for the business community more broadly.

Our earlier article on SpaceX’s planned IPO explained that the company is targeting a record $1.75 trillion valuation and aiming to raise at least $75 billion in an all-primary share sale. We noted that the deal could give public investors rare access to one of the most closely watched private companies, while its final terms and timing remain dependent on market conditions and investor demand.

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