Great power rivalry heightens geopolitical risk, review says

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Ciaran Ryan

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Great power rivalry heightens geopolitical risk, review says — Rivalries reshape global order

As strategic competition among the U.S., China and Russia reshapes global politics, a new review of Brendan Simms' book argues that major powers are again setting the terms of international order. The assessment warns that cooperation on issues such as climate, disease and AI regulation is becoming less likely as security rivalry deepens.

Highlights

Brendan Simms' The Return of the Great Powers argues that the U.S., China, Russia, and possibly the UK drive a new multipolar geopolitical era, sidelining Japan, Germany, India, and France.
The book asserts rising great power rivalry forces countries to prioritize economic security over globalization, increasing risk from autocracies and strategic dependencies.
The review notes further change since 2025 with Russia's weakened Ukraine position, consequences of Trump's war in Iran, and signs of reduced U.S. global reach.

Book review outlines a harsher power framework

As reported by Financial Times, Brendan Simms' The Return of the Great Powers argues that the world is entering a prolonged era in which the U.S., China and Russia dominate international affairs, with no single hegemon likely to emerge. The review says Simms sees great powers as states with military, economic and human resources, reach beyond their regions, a widely recognised status and the resilience to recover from setbacks.

Using that framework, Simms excludes second-tier powers such as Japan, Germany, India and France, while counting Russia largely because of its military and nuclear strength. He also includes the UK among the great powers, a judgment the reviewer challenges, arguing Britain's global standing has weakened markedly since Brexit and a decade of domestic political dysfunction.

The review also questions Simms' view that China's power peaked in 2017-18. While acknowledging Beijing's demographic, debt and social pressures, it argues China remains close behind the U.S. in technology and is building the military capacity to contest American supremacy in the western Pacific.

Conflict risks and economic consequences widen

The review says one of the book's most important conclusions is that geopolitical competition makes it harder for countries to balance economic interdependence with economic security. In that view, the globalization wave of the 1990s and 2000s depended on the absence of serious strategic rivalry, while today's governments must be more selective about which dependencies they can tolerate.

It also highlights Simms' warning that the greatest upheavals may come from autocracies, where infrequent leadership change can produce abrupt strategic shifts. The book closes with a stark warning that war between great powers would be catastrophic for the West and potentially terminal for Russia and China, with Asia and Europe remaining the main theaters of competition.

The review adds that the strategic landscape has changed further since Simms finished writing in late 2025, citing a more precarious Russian position in Ukraine, the effects of Trump's war in Iran and signs of reduced U.S. global reach. Even so, it concludes that the book offers a useful guide to the return of great-power politics and the risks that accompany it.

Our earlier coverage of the U.S.-Iran conflict focused on how the escalation was unsettling crude markets, pushing WTI and Brent higher as traders weighed the risk of wider regional disruption. We also highlighted warnings about potential supply shocks if Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, alongside expectations that persistently higher energy costs could feed inflation and influence central-bank policy.

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