WTI has moved lower following a sharp rally driven by tensions in the Middle East. The main factor behind the pullback has been the reduction in the geopolitical risk premium after signals of de-escalation in the Iran–Israel conflict.
Against this backdrop, investors began taking profits, and the market shifted its focus back to fundamental supply and demand factors. As of June 9, WTI prices have fallen below the $90 per barrel mark, losing more than 8–9% over the past month.
Weak demand comes back into focus
Additional pressure on the market is coming from deteriorating global demand prospects. Saudi Arabia has already lowered its official selling prices for Asian buyers for July, reflecting weaker consumption in the region, particularly in China. At the same time, data points to a decline in Chinese oil imports and more cautious refinery activity, reinforcing concerns about the pace of global demand growth in the second half of the year.
OPEC+ increases supply despite volatility
OPEC+ actions also remain a negative factor for prices. The alliance continues to gradually return previously cut production volumes, having agreed on another increase in output quotas for July. Although the actual impact of additional supply remains limited for now, the market interprets these steps as a signal of further supply growth amid slowing demand.
Risk balance remains mixed
Despite the current decline, the market continues to find support from falling US crude inventories and persistent supply risks in the Middle East. However, in the short term, easing geopolitical tensions, weaker demand signals from Asia, and expectations of increased supply from OPEC+ are shaping a bearish outlook for WTI. A sustained upward trend would require new supply constraints or clear signs of a recovery in global demand.
Near-term outlook
The inability of bulls to break resistance around the $95 level triggered profit-taking on long positions, pushing WTI prices down toward $89. The formation of lower highs indicates increasing risks of a test of support at $86.5. A move back above $90 would increase the chances of testing the $91–91.5 range. As previously noted in WTI rebounds amid geopolitical risks and tight supply, the situation in the Middle East remains one of the key drivers of oil price dynamics.
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