Canadian Natural Resources stock trades down as Fiera Capital Corp cuts exposure

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Canadian Natural Resources drops 1.56% today

Highlights

Fiera Capital cut its position in Canadian Natural Resources by 12% in Q4, signaling reduced institutional support.
This share reduction may have pressured demand and coincided with today's downward price move.
Technical indicators show sustained selling momentum, with the price expected to trade between C$62.16 and C$65.14 and a high probability of further downside.

Institutional selling drives investor sentiment and market supply imbalance

Fiera Capital Corp reduced its holdings in Canadian Natural Resources Limited by 12% during the fourth quarter, as reflected in recent filings indicating a position of approximately 1,293,745 shares. Such a reduction in institutional ownership can influence sentiment and alter the supply-demand balance, as shares previously held by a large investor are reintroduced to the market. This may have contributed to weaker demand among other investors and accompanied today's downward move.

Momentum remains weak as price hovers between support and resistance

CNQ is trading below the MA-20 and MA-50 levels, while maintaining position above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun is at C$65.36, currently serving as the closest resistance. Key support is indicated within the C$62.16 region, and resistance stands near C$65.14. Momentum analysis reveals a weak profile: RSI is at 37.12, MACD and Awesome Oscillator both align to the downside, and ADX remains neutral. Stoch RSI, CCI, and BBP all flag oversold conditions and show continued selling intensity. There are no signs of meaningful positive divergence across oscillators.

Downside risk persists amid expected volatility and technical barriers

In the next several sessions, price action is expected to remain volatile within the C$62.16 to C$65.14 range, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. Probability favors further downside in the short term, with a 78% chance of prices moving lower versus a 22% chance for upside. The central scenario is continued consolidation near the lower end of the range—an upside breakout would require a sustained move above immediate resistance, while support breakdowns could open additional downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees Canadian Natural Resources Limited facing clear technical and sentiment headwinds. Institutional outflows, including Fiera Capital Corp’s recent stake reduction, weaken demand and pressure the price below key moving averages. Oscillator readings confirm persistent selling with no signs of reversal yet. "Until C$65.14 resistance is broken on meaningful volume, I remain defensive and expect further downside risk."

Earlier, analysts noted that Canadian Natural Resources maintained longer-term resilience despite selective institutional selling and mixed short-term momentum. The current shift in institutional ownership and mounting downside pressures reinforce a cautious stance, with further declines possible if support fails to hold in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: CNQ Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.