U.S. World Cup betting set to test operators as global wagers may top $50 billion

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US World Cup Betting Test

Highlights

Legal U.S. sports betting now reaches 65% of the population versus 40% during the 2022 Men's World Cup, boosting potential market size.
DraftKings shares rose 11% after May trading volume jumped 34% month-over-month to $3.1 billion annualized, with consumer volume up 24% to $1.3 billion.
Kalshi and Polymarket recorded $7 billion in combined weekly trading volume, up 13%, as prediction markets gain popularity and face regulatory challenges.

Market expansion and regulatory friction

The U.S. betting market is more developed than it was during the men’s World Cup in 2022, with about 65% of the U.S. population now having legal access to sports betting, compared with about 40% at that time, according to the American Gaming Association. Sportsbooks have also improved same-game parlays, live betting and soccer-specific products, factors that could make this tournament more commercially valuable than prior editions.

Prediction markets are adding a new competitive layer because bettors in many states can access match-related contracts through those platforms. At the same time, several states are in legal proceedings over prediction markets, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission says it has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts.

A SEON survey shows licensed betting apps remain the most popular option for World Cup wagers, chosen by 29% of respondents, while 19% say they prefer prediction markets. Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley says Kalshi and Polymarket together post record trading volume of $7 billion, up 13% week over week, and Kalshi alone is offering nearly 500 tournament-related markets.

DraftKings, FanDuel and Fanatics have also moved into prediction-style products in states where they lack gaming licenses. DraftKings shares rose 11% on Tuesday after the company released May trading volume figures showing a 34% month-over-month increase to $3.1 billion on an annualized basis, while annualized consumer volume reached $1.3 billion, up 24% from the previous month.

Industry growth is also bringing responsible-gambling concerns into sharper focus. SEON finds nearly a quarter of respondents admit to so-called friendly fraud, including opening multiple accounts to capture promotions, while gambling-harm advocates warn that a month-long schedule with matches every day can increase the risk of habitual betting.

Our earlier report on Kalshi’s tighter compliance controls explained that the prediction-market operator began requiring employment verification before users can trade, aiming to flag potential insiders with access to material non-public information. We also noted the rollout of added surveillance tools such as market risk-scoring and an expanded whistleblower process, as regulators and states increase pressure on event contracts, including ongoing legal disputes over jurisdiction.

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