Spotify distances from Kalshi and Polymarket over questionable music bets

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Spotify distances from Kalshi and Polymarket over questionable music bets — Spotify has raised concerns about prediction markets.

Spotify has asked prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its logo and state clearly that neither platform has a partnership with the streaming service. The reason was artificial streaming activity that affected song rankings on Spotify charts and was used for bets on prediction markets.

According to Bloomberg, Spotify removed more than 500,000 artificial streams that had pushed Malcolm Todd’s track “Earrings” into one of the most popular songs on the platform’s charts.

However, the inflated figures had already been used to settle a Kalshi market linked to the most-streamed Spotify song in the U.S. in June. Trading volume on that market reached $3 million.

Todd was declared one of the winners based on data published before Spotify completed its investigation. After identifying the problem, the company contacted Kalshi and Polymarket.

Manipulation increases risks for prediction markets

The case has increased concerns that prediction markets may create a financial incentive for participants to interfere with the events they are betting on.

Earlier, an employee of a U.S. think tank changed an interactive map of Russia’s war against Ukraine. That map was used to settle a Polymarket bet on Russian territorial gains. In France, authorities also investigated possible interference with weather station data for profit on a market linked to temperatures in Paris.

Before the suspicious activity began, the odds of Todd taking first place for June were below 3% on Kalshi. This meant that traders who bought contracts at those prices could have earned roughly 30 times their stake.

Artificial streaming has long been a problem for Spotify and other streaming services. It is usually used to increase payouts to artists. However, prediction markets add a new financial motive for manipulating music metrics.

Regulatory problems

The Spotify scandal has become another blow to the reputation of Kalshi and Polymarket, which are already facing growing regulatory pressure in different countries. Authorities in many jurisdictions view prediction markets not as financial instruments or platforms for assessing probabilities, but as a form of gambling. As a result, platforms have to introduce geographic restrictions, while regulators demand access blocks or local licenses.

One of the latest examples is Spain, where access to Polymarket and Kalshi has started to be restricted over claims related to the lack of a gambling license and concerns about user protection. Polymarket has previously faced similar problems in France, Poland, Singapore and Belgium.

As a reminder, Polymarket has surpassed $1 billion in annual revenue.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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