March 2025 letter warning of retaliatory tariffs drags Tesla stock down

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Tesla slides 3.51% to $383.27 today

Highlights

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's Fremont factory visit signals increased federal scrutiny of Tesla's domestic operations and supply chain policy.
Tesla remains exposed to regulatory and tariff risks, highlighting ongoing challenges in securing domestic battery supply and navigating trade tensions.
TSLA trades below major moving averages with strong downward momentum, facing heavy selling and a probable range of $362.39 to $404.14 short term.

Federal scrutiny rises as Tesla flags tariff, supply chain risks

The scheduled visit of US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer to Tesla's Fremont factory on June 11 marks a significant point of federal engagement with the company's domestic operations, reflecting increased regulatory attention on US-based production policy. In March, Tesla communicated directly with Greer's office, flagging its vulnerability to retaliatory tariffs from international trade partners and emphasizing difficulties in sourcing lithium-ion battery components domestically. These ongoing regulatory and supply chain concerns continue to expose Tesla to risks related to potential policy changes and escalating trade tensions.

Technical signals flash bearish as key resistances and momentum diverge

Short-term technicals show TSLA trading below the MA-20 ($417.21) and MA-50 ($420.80) on the H4 chart, and also beneath the daily MA-200 ($414.94). The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $414.40 as the nearest resistance. Momentum indicators provide confirmation of persistent selling, with the RSI at 36.35 (Sell) and both MACD and Stoch RSI generating Sell signals. The CCI and BBP reflect oversold conditions and strong seller dominance, while the ADX and AO readings are Neutral, suggesting some divergence among trend signals.

Downside risks prevail while consolidation likely within volatility band

In the next 23 sessions, the expected volatility band stands between $362.39 and $404.14. The probability of a significant upward move is low under current technical conditions, whereas the likelihood of further downside remains elevated. The most probable scenario is a sideways consolidation within this corridor, with a bearish extension likely if support at $362.39 is breached and a bullish reversal dependent on a breakout above $414.40.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees clear downside risk for Tesla as price remains pressured below all key moving averages and regulatory scrutiny intensifies. He notes that weakness in technical momentum is reinforced by the company's open concerns over supply chain and tariff risks. Until the $414.40 level is reclaimed, the base case is for further volatility or continued decline. "Staying defensive here — bearish extension is likely if $362.39 gives way, so I’m waiting for a clear reversal or fresh support before considering upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that Tesla was experiencing sustained technical weakness and investor uncertainty amid ongoing speculation and mixed market signals. The current analysis reinforces this bearish outlook, with deepening regulatory and supply chain risks now amplifying the potential for a downside break below $362.39 in the event that support fails over the coming sessions.

Source of Data: TSLA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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