U.S. natural gas prices have remained under pressure in early June after retreating from multi-week highs. The main drivers behind the decline have been milder weather forecasts for the second half of the month, rising production, and a temporary reduction in LNG exports due to seasonal maintenance at major U.S. LNG export facilities.
As a result, the market has entered a corrective phase following its spring rally, with Henry Hub futures holding near the $3.1 per MMBtu level.
Inventories remain comfortable
Additional pressure comes from elevated gas inventories. According to the EIA, storage levels remain approximately 5% above the five-year average, easing concerns about potential supply shortages during the summer season. At the same time, the agency revised its 2026–2027 price forecasts downward, citing expectations of higher production, primarily driven by increasing output from the Permian Basin.
Supportive factors remain, but not enough to reverse the trend
Despite the current weakness, the market continues to receive some support from expectations of stronger power demand during the summer heat season. In addition, the completion of maintenance work at LNG facilities should help restore export demand in the coming weeks. However, analysts note that a sustained price recovery would likely require either a prolonged period of exceptionally high temperatures or a more significant increase in LNG exports. For now, these factors appear insufficient to generate a new bullish momentum.
Medium-term outlook remains moderately positive
Over the longer term, the fundamental outlook remains constructive thanks to growing global LNG demand, expanding U.S. export capacity, and rising electricity consumption from data centers and industrial users. Nevertheless, in the coming months the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to inventory data, weather forecasts, and LNG export dynamics. The current balance of factors suggests continued elevated volatility, with downside pressure prevailing in the near term.
Near-term outlook
The inability of NATGAS prices to return above and establish themselves over the $3.08–3.10 resistance zone indicates that risks remain skewed toward a break below support at $3.00–2.93 and a decline toward the $2.84–2.80 area, where buying interest may emerge, as previously discussed in Natural gas declines again amid oversupply and weaker LNG exports. A breakout above the aforementioned resistance would open the way for a move toward the $3.16–3.20 range.
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