Makerfield by-election tests Labour leadership and the right-wing vote

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Makerfield by-election test

Highlights

Labour candidate Andy Burnham openly challenges Keir Starmer’s leadership, promising limited fiscal commitments and targeting high street business rate cuts funded by charges on large online warehousing.
New right-wing party Restore Britain draws 5–10 percent support in Makerfield polls—double its national level—outspending Reform UK on social ads and gaining visibility via reposts by Elon Musk.
Surging social media misinformation, including deepfake videos and misleading adverts, targets Burnham while Reform UK faces scrutiny over candidate Robert Kenyon’s historic posts and gender politics controversies.

Campaign dynamics shape a high-stakes contest

As reported by the Financial Times, the campaign is unusually defined by Labour candidate Andy Burnham positioning himself against Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer while seeking a return to parliament. Burnham has confirmed he wants to replace Starmer as Labour leader if he wins the seat and re-enters the House of Commons, while Starmer says he will resist any challenge.

That tension leaves Burnham trying to balance local concerns in a seat of older, immigration-sceptical voters with broader signals to Labour MPs and financial markets. His message centres on changing Labour, but he is limiting firm spending commitments at a time of tight fiscal constraints, instead floating narrower ideas including cuts to high street business rates funded by higher charges on large online warehousing operators such as Amazon.

The local-national split is also visible in the campaign’s messaging. Much of Burnham’s social media output focuses on his credentials and his plans to reshape Labour, while relatively little is devoted to the economy, and Starmer is not expected to visit the constituency on results day.

Right-wing rivalry and online campaigning intensify pressure

Competition on the right is adding uncertainty to the result. Reform UK remains a strong force in the seat, but Restore Britain, a newer nativist party launched in February, is drawing support that local surveys place at between 5 and 10 per cent, above its national level, and Reform figures are concerned that vote-splitting could benefit Burnham.

Restore’s campaign has gained visibility through founder Rupert Lowe’s social media presence and reposts by Elon Musk on X. The party is also spending heavily online in Makerfield, with the report saying its Facebook and Instagram advertising outlays are about double those of Reform.

Gender politics have also emerged as a campaign fault line after historic online posts linked to Reform candidate Robert Kenyon drew criticism. Reform says it fully backs Kenyon, and the dispute has fed into wider efforts by parties on the right to target different voter groups, including younger women.

Social media misinformation is becoming a central feature of the race as well. Local Facebook groups are seeing a rise in false political content, much of it hostile to Burnham and favourable to Reform, while deepfake videos and misleading advertisements are adding to scrutiny of digital campaigning.

The Greens, after a major by-election win elsewhere in Greater Manchester in February, are taking a more restrained approach in Makerfield. Party figures fear splitting the progressive vote in what they see as a two-horse contest, although the party still fields Manchester councillor Sarah Wakefield after its initial candidate steps down over past social media comments.

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