Can Rolls-Royce reach new highs as momentum slows?

Can Rolls-Royce reach new highs as momentum slows?
Can Rolls-Royce reach new highs as momentum slows?

​At the moment, the most important external factor for Rolls-Royce remains the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran.

This is particularly significant for Rolls-Royce because the conflict affects both the global aviation sector and energy prices. The roadmap toward a final agreement between the U.S. and Iran over the next 60 days has already contributed to lower oil prices and improved investor risk appetite, benefiting airline stocks and aerospace suppliers alike.

Meanwhile, Rolls-Royce management has reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and stated that the company expects to fully offset the current impact of instability in the Middle East. The company continues to forecast operating profit of £4.0–4.2 billion and strong free cash flow generation.

Correction risk grows as momentum fades

As mentioned in our previous analysis, buyers have so far been unable to establish the stock above the GBX 1,420 level, indicating that selling pressure remains elevated near record highs.

The primary short-term risk is a correction toward the nearest liquidity zone, where a significant amount of short-term trader positioning is concentrated between GBX 1,358 and GBX 1,381.

If this support area holds, the stock could make another attempt to retest its all-time high. However, such a move would likely require a strong fundamental catalyst and a noticeable increase in trading volume.

The RSI (14) remains close to overbought territory, which limits the stock's short-term upside potential and increases the likelihood of profit-taking.

Strong fundamentals meet thin summer liquidity

Rolls-Royce remains one of the strongest companies in the European industrial sector.

The company continues to benefit from the recovery in civil aviation, rising defense spending, and the expansion of energy infrastructure projects. Additional support comes from its small modular reactor (SMR) initiatives and energy solutions for data centers.

The main obstacle to a sustained breakout remains liquidity. Trading volumes typically decline during the summer months, and the absence of large buyers is currently preventing the stock from making a decisive move above its all-time high.

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