Micron earnings may determine Nvidia's next move
Nvidia is attempting to recover following the recent correction across the semiconductor sector. However, the market remains highly sensitive to any news related to AI infrastructure, and Micron's upcoming earnings report could become the key catalyst for the entire industry in the coming days.
The main short-term risk for Nvidia is Micron's earnings report, scheduled for June 24 after the market close. As one of the leading memory manufacturers, Micron serves as an important indicator of the health of the AI industry, since demand for HBM and server memory is directly tied to the pace of AI data center construction. Any signs of slowing demand could trigger another wave of profit-taking across the semiconductor sector.
However, even a strong report may not be enough to sustain the rally. Elevated trading volumes during earnings releases often create favorable conditions for large institutional investors to lock in profits. Funds may use renewed retail interest as an opportunity to reduce positions, which could put additional pressure on semiconductor stocks, including Nvidia.
All eyes on $200 ahead of Micron earning
As mentioned previously, the key support level for Nvidia remains the psychological $200 mark. NVDA has managed to hold this level so far, but the premarket rebound has been relatively weak.
As a result, the risk of a decline toward the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near $190 remains in play. Since the stock tested exactly $200 without breaking below it, liquidity below the level has not yet been fully cleared, leaving room for another test.
Given the expected surge in volatility surrounding Micron's earnings release, opening short-term positions before the report may carry elevated risk.
Rising greed increases correction risks
After years of exceptional gains, Nvidia has become one of the most crowded positions among institutional investors. Much of the positive news flow is already reflected in the stock price, increasing the likelihood of profit-taking even after strong earnings reports from companies across the AI supply chain.
Investor sentiment is gradually shifting from optimism toward complacency and greed, leading some market participants to lock in accumulated gains. While this trend is not yet pronounced, a continuation of the recent decline could increase the risk of a deeper and more sustained correction.
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